Blog

Oct 5, 2015

Grains Higher Monday Morning

在overnight session the grains traded higher with corn up 1/2 a cent, soybeans up 3 3/4 cents and wheat up 3 cents. The outside markets are mostly supportive with the U.S. dollar lower by a fraction of a percent, the S&P trading marginally higher and crude oil up 56 cents this morning. Traders are anticipating the Friday release of the USDA October Supply and Demand Report.

Oct 2, 2015

Markets Weaker on Supply Woes

Grains were modestly lower in the night trade with corn and soybeans off 2 cents a bushel, and wheat down 3. In other markets, S&P futures were up 0.4% while crude oil was up 1%.

Oct 1, 2015

Grains Mixed in the Overnight

Grains were mixed overnight with wheat up 3 and soybeans up 2, but corn traded fractionally lower

Sep 30, 2015

Traders Eye Quarterly Stocks

在overnight session, the grains traded higher with corn up 3/4 of a cent, soybeans up 3 cents and wheat up 1 cent. Soybeans are trading just a few cents below the $8.90 which has held back four attempts to move higher since August 24th. After so many failed attempts, I would be surprised if this resistance level holds in the coming days. However, trade action will be mostly driven by the USDA Grain Stocks report which will be released out at 11 AM CST.

Sep 29, 2015

Corn Harvest Behind Expectations

在overnight session, the grains are mostly unchanged with corn down 1 cent, soybeans up 3/4 of a cent and wheat trading down 4 cents. The U.S. dollar increased a fraction of a percent in the overnight and crude oil jumped 73 cents after selling off during yesterday’s session. The weather looks mostly clear with some showers later on this week. The most recent models show that planting delays seem unlikely in the short run.

Sep 28, 2015

Strong Export Sales Announced This Morning

在overnight session the grains were mixed with corn up 3/4 of a cent, soybeans down 5 1/4 cents and wheat up 6 1/2 cents this morning. The U.S. dollar is trading a fraction of a percent higher and crude oil is down 86 cents this morning. Last Friday, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, announced that a rate hike will most likely come at the end of the year.

Sep 25, 2015

Weekly Cash Comments

Soybean basis was off sharply this week giving up 5 cents a bushel, while corn basis was relatively quiet and unchanged for the week.

Harvest has gotten into full swing with USDA reporting at the start of the week that 10 percent of the corn crop has been harvested and 7 percent of the soybean crop. Heavy rains around Nebraska and Iowa late in the week stalled harvest progress, but the 10-day outlook shows clear and dry weather which should accelerate the harvest progress.

Sep 25, 2015

Chinese Soybean Purchase Lifts Soybeans

在overnight session the grains traded higher with soybeans leading the way up 9 1/4 cents. Corn jumped 2 cents and wheat climbed 3 ½ cents to help erase some of the losses seen yesterday. Crude oil is trading 37 cents higher and the U.S dollar is up .6 percent after the Fed Chairman Janet Yellen said she expects rate hikes later on this year. It was announced this morning an export sale of 260,000 metric tons of U.S. Soybeans to be delivered to China for 15/16.

Sep 24, 2015

Grains Turn Lower

在overnight session, the grains traded lower with corn down 3 1/4 cents, soybeans down 3 1/4 cents and wheat down 5 1/4 cents. A reportable export sale of 313,000 metric tons of soybeans was reported today to unknown destinations for 15/16 delivery.

Yesterday, the EIA announced that ethanol production decreased 23,000 barrels per day to 938,000 barrels per day. Ethanol production is above last year’s levels at this time by only seven thousand barrels, but above the 4 year moving average by 67 thousand barrels per day. Ethanol stocks are up 609,000 barrels per day to 18.9 million barrels of inventory.

Sep 23, 2015

Markets Higher in the Overnight

Markets were broadly higher overnight after widespread weakness took its toll on commodity and financial markets on Tuesday.

Wheat had the biggest recovery posting a 7-cent advance in the night session where concerns about dry weather in Australia and the Black Sea region are mounting. There are some minor concerns in southern Ukraine where it has been too dry to consider sowing winter grain.

Sep 22, 2015

Commodity and Equity Markets Lower in the Overnight

Commodity and equity markets were lower overnight as broad-based bearish sentiment continues to entrench the global view. In grains, soybeans were down 6 cents a bushel while corn and wheat gave up 4-cents in the night session. Overnight trade showed stock markets in Japan and Europe on the downside, with S&P futures off 1.7 percent. Oil also was lower posting a $1.40 a barrel drop or 3 percent.

Sep 21, 2015

Grains Mixed in the Overnight

Grain markets were mixed overnight with soybeans advancing 4 cents a bushel, while corn and wheat slumped about a penny going into the morning break.

周五,埃及宣布其后期的结果st wheat purchase, with Russia, Ukraine and France splitting the business on a 230,000 MT deal. The US continues to remain at lofty price levels that are uncompetitive in world trade. Also on Friday after the close, USDA reported the latest cattle on feed estimates. As of September 1, all cattle on feed were at 103.0 percent versus a trade estimate of 103.4 percent, but the big surprise was August placements of 95 percent versus trade expectations of 100.2 percent. Cattle movement into U.S. feedlots last month dropped 5.0 percent from August 2014 to their lowest level since the government started tracking the data in 1996.

Sep 18, 2015

Grains Mixed in Early Morning

在overnight session, the grains were mixed with corn unchanged, soybeans down 1 1/2 cents and wheat up 2 cents this morning. The U.S. dollar is trading .27 percent lower and crude oil is down $1.25 per barrel. Yesterday’s announcement by the Federal Reserve Chief Janet Yellen announced that interest rates will remain unchanged at 0-0.25 percent which seemed to have little impact on the grains immediately following the announcement. Janet Yellen emphasized that our economy was improving and the labor market was improving but that uncertainties abroad lowered their inflation outlook.

Sep 18, 2015

Weekly Cash Comments

This week the grains traded higher with soybeans gaining 10 1/2 cents, corn increasing 5 1/2 cents and wheat in Chicago increasing 3 1/2 cents. On Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman, Janet Yellen, announced that interest rates will remain unchanged at 0-0.25 percent which seemed to have little impact on the grains immediately following the announcement. Janet Yellen emphasized that our economy was improving and the labor market was improving but that uncertainties abroad lowered their inflation outlook. It seems that interest rates will remain low at least for the time being which should pressure the U.S. Dollar.

Sep 17, 2015

Exports in Line with Expectations

在overnight session the grains traded lower with corn down 4 cents, soybeans down 5 3/4 cents and wheat down 3 1/2 cents. The U.S. dollar is also trading lower by .26 percent and crude oil has slipped 55 cents. The number of unemployment applications fell last week by 11,000 to a seasonally adjusted 264,000 for the week ending September 12th which is a sign that the labor market is improving.

Sep 16, 2015

NOPA Crush Met Expectations

在overnight session the grains traded mostly lower with corn down 1 1/4 cents, soybeans unchanged and wheat down 1 1/4 cents. The U.S. dollar is trading down .09 percent and crude oil is up $1.10 to $45.68 per barrel. The markets are eagerly waiting the Federal Reserve meeting later on Wednesday which will discuss whether or not they will increase rates on Thursday.

Sep 15, 2015

Grain Prices Lower this Morning

Grain had trouble holding on to Monday’s gains as prices were lower across the board going into the morning break. At the close, corn was off 2, wheat was off 5, and soybeans were fractionally lower.

Sep 14, 2015

Grains found modest strength to open the week

Grains found modest strength to open the week with soybeans leading the complex on a 6-cent advance, wheat posted a 3-cent gain, and corn followed on a one-cent improvement.

Action following Friday’s USDA supply and demand report seems somewhat tepid this morning. Friday’s report was mildly bullish for corn and modestly bearish for beans and wheat. But, the central theme of the supply and demand data continues to be large carry-outs for all crops.

Sep 11, 2015

Weekly Cash Comments

Soybean basis was off yet again this week as old-crop premiums get closer to new-crop fall delivery levels. For the week, soybean basis was off 7 cents a bushel on average, while corn basis was unchanged for the week.

Sep 11, 2015

USDA Supply and Demand Report Expectations

在overnight session the grains were mostly unchanged with corn up 1/4 cent, soybeans up 2 1/1/2 cents and wheat down 1/2 a penny. The dollar is trading a fraction of a percent higher and crude oil has fallen $1.32. This morning there was a reportable new crop sale of 180,000 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations.

The latest WASDE report will be released at 11 AM CST today. The August report produced significantly higher yield estimates and ending stocks than the market was looking, especially after the drowned acres and excessive rains damaged the crop in the eastern grain belt. The August surprise sent prices tumbling for the next month, so what is in store for the September report?

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Magazine

Marketwatch: Jun, 12

US Corn Price Idx:ZCPAUS.CM

open: 7.7377
high: 7.807
low: 7.677
close: 7.7526

US Soybean Price Idx:ZSPAUS.CM

open: 17.2303
high: 17.2303
low: 16.9512
close: 16.9916

US Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx:KEPAUS.CM

open: 11.0255
high: 11.2341
low: 10.9614
close: 11.1675

US Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx:ZWPAUS.CM

open: 10.036
high: 10.2027
low: 9.9514
close: 10.1276