Trans-Pacific Partnership Progresses

What originally started as the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement in 2005 among Singapore, Brunei, New Zealand and Chile — known as the Pacific Four (P4) Agreement — has evolved into what is now called the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), potentially one of the most influential Free Trade Agreements in the last decade. While the TPP requires every country participating to eliminate all tariff lines by 2015, its main objective is to eliminate many non-tariff trade barriers, such as incompatible biotech and food and feed sanitation regulations.

The TPP is uniquely designed to allow additional countries across the Asia-Pacific region to join in negotiations. Since the original P4 was established, five countries formally committed to the TPP: the United States, Australia, Peru, Vietnam and Malaysia; while other new nations continue to express interest in joining.

As the scope of the agreement grows, so does the opportunity for the United States to create domestic jobs by increasing exports to a region that represents more than 40% of global trade.

Trade policy experts Gina Tumbarello, manager of international trade, American Feed Industry Association (AFIA), Floyd Gaibler, director of trade policy, U.S. Grains Council (USGC) and Gary C. Martin, president and CEO, North American Export Grain Association (NAEGA), weigh in on who could potentially be among our newest trade partners and provide a timeline of the agreement’s previous and ongoing developments.

喂养& Grain: What is the significance of the Trans-Pacific Partnership in regard to its influence on the future of trade policy development?

AFIA的Gina Tumbarello：TPP预计将是一项“下一代”协议，为未来的自由贸易协定奠定了标准。它将解决新的和新兴的贸易问题，并有望包括有关先前贸易协定中未包括的横切问题的规定。

这样的规定是使TPP国家的监管系统更加兼容，使公司可以在TPP市场上更加顺利地工作。

NAEGA的加里·马丁（Gary Martin）：这是一项很大的区域贸易协定，这是重要的，因为它是在全球经济对此沮丧的紧随其后进行谈判的多哈发展协议。至少在亚太地区，TPP有望成为标准设定。

Floyd Gaibler, USGC: The significance of this agreement is that the original went beyond other traditional agreements by covering broader cross-cutting issues dealing with trade constraints along the global supply and production chain. The TPP requires regulatory coherence among the participating nine nations, which will result in more seamless and consistent trade between the countries.

另一个独特的质量原始P4的协定t is that it was designed to easily allow future participants to come on board. The real importance of this is that it’s viewed as the beginning of an Asia regional economic agreement that would ultimately launch what’s been termed a “Free Trade of the Asia Pacific Region,” an approach trade policy experts have long advocated to the western hemisphere.

F＆G：其他国家加入TPP的可能性是多少？

Gaibler, USGC: Canada, Mexico and Japan formally expressed interest in joining the TPP at the November 2011 negotiation meeting. Each of these three countries has been undergoing consultations with all of the nine current members and it’s [the USGC’s] belief that all three will probably join at some juncture.

Tumbarello, AFIA: Negotiations between the TPP countries and Japan, Canada and Mexico have been ongoing. As it stands, it is believed that the United States, New Zealand and Australia are the only TPP countries not yet ready to commit to adding new trading partners to the negotiations. The other six TPP countries have completed their consultation process with the three [interested] countries and appear to be open to having them join the talks in the near term.

The United States is concerned that adding new countries at this juncture could slow down the momentum of the talks. There is speculation on when new countries will join. Some say it is unlikely to happen in the coming months; others say that is unlikely to happen until late this year, at the earliest. Mexico is aggressively working to join as soon as possible, which may be due to the upcoming presidential elections on July 1. Once the elections are held, a government changeover could delay Mexico’s inclusion in the TPP negotiations.

其他未来潜在的TPP参与者包括菲律宾，巴布亚新几内亚，哥斯达黎加和韩国。

Martin, NAEGA: Japan has expressed interest, but its concern over the management of food safety is legitimate. It’s largely an import-dependent country and so it struggles with how to open its food supply market without a complex set of controls. Once the major decisions regarding those systems have been made, the best thing the United States can do is to support Japan in their decision making, as it is one of the best customers of U.S. agriculture products.

F＆G：是什么使亚太地区如此吸引人的市场？

Gaibler, USGC: For the United States it’s important because there are over 100 different trade agreements in the Asia Pacific region itself — some bi-lateral and some regional — and we have not been participating in those, yet we know Asia will be a key driver of global economic growth.

The individual TPP partners are relatively small nations in terms of their economic size and growth, but the current negotiators combined constitute the fourth largest trading partner for the United States. If Japan were included, then it would rank as the second largest trading partner for the United States and represent 36% global GDP.

我认为，在某个时候，中国以及韩国，台湾和菲律宾等其他国家都会引起人们的兴趣。一旦他们了解了这一点的重要性以及在增强贸易流程方面的经济力量，其他国家将考虑加入TPP。仅加入中国几乎将是该协议范围的两倍，但它可能还没有准备好，因为他们过渡到不太依赖出口并将其重点放在增加国内生产和利用率上。

F＆G：TPP将如何直接影响美国的谷物处理和出口公司？

Martin, NAEGA: Without the TPP, there are uncertainties in trading with these countries due to lack of regulatory compatibility with respect to the sampling and measuring of grain. Regulations vary so dramatically, especially in the developing world, resulting in risk premiums in the transaction. The TPP would reduce those premiums considerably by improving the authorization and management of all those considerations that cost money to manage, like crop biotechnology, quality characteristics and other issues related to safety, mycotoxins and pesticide residues.

TPP中将要考虑的横切问题和改进将使我们从效率的角度来支持我们的一部分，并将一部分价格推回生产商并进一步激励生产，这对整个行业都有好处将降低当前由跨界托运人管理的风险。

Tumbarello, AFIA: Japan is the United State’s fourth largest feed export market and fourth largest agricultural export market overall. While most animal feed enters Japan duty free, Japanese barriers to U.S. livestock exports are more restrictive. [If Japan were to join,] eliminating existing barriers and leveling the international playing field for trade would further develop Japan as an export market for the United States. The United States would ultimately be exporting more feed to Japan in the form of value-added products such as meats and dairy products, and those sales would benefit the U.S. feed, livestock and poultry industries, and their customers.

F＆G：What phase of negotiations is the TPP in and when might it go into effect?

阿菲亚·坦巴雷洛（Tumbarello）：关于TPP谈判结论的时机存在猜测。去年11月，TPP国家的领导人开会并宣布了该协议的概述，并重申了他们完成“全面，下一代协议”的承诺。同时，日本，加拿大和墨西哥表示有兴趣加入TPP谈判。由于其他当事方的兴趣加入，人们担心会在谈判中失去动力。尽管谈判仍在进行中，但美国贸易代表（USTR）表示希望在年中获得某种结果。

The USTR has recently released their schedule of informal meetings in the TPP negotiations. These will be held prior to the next formal round of meetings in Dallas. This aggressive schedule addressing topics such as intellectual property rights, investment, technical barriers to trade and rules of origin, shows USTR’s commitment to moving forward with the negotiations despite interest by new parties, and their commitment to completing a high-level, comprehensive agreement.

USTR is expected to complete negotiations on as many chapters as possible by early June. However, several items are only recently being negotiated; and controversial items such as labor rights … may require more time. On the other hand, there is also concern that with the United State’s elections so near, there is unlikely to be any significant advances for fear that [no one] will want to make any big decisions and offer concessions without knowing who the next U.S. president will be. Timing is still very much up in the air.

USGC Gaibler：一旦TPP合作伙伴接近完成这些谈判，政府必须授予IT快速轨道机构，这意味着国会将考虑整个协议，并且将在不接受修正或批准的情况下向上或投票。

这是很重要的,因为国家会反抗ant to finalize sensitive negotiations or serious concessions knowing that someone in Congress can take those away by offering amendments. The Administration has already signaled it will submit the Fast Track legislation at the appropriate time.

结论

The Asia-Pacific region holds a wealth of potential for U.S. economic growth, specifically within the agriculture sector, and industry stakeholders will continue to strongly support its passage by the U.S. Congress.

Once enacted, the Trans-Pacific Partnership will vastly improve trade between the United States and its TPP partners by more adequately addressing regulatory incompatibilities that exist today between some of the nine countries.

Although Japan, Canada and Mexico have announced intentions to join negotiations, the next round will take place in Dallas, TX, in May and is open only to those who have formally committed to the TPP’s provisions. The USTR will release a TPP negotiation update on itswebsiteby this summer.