2011年的洪水

这个季节，北部平原面临红河的重大洪水，破坏了谷物流量并延迟了种植。然后，雨水袭击了中南部和东部玉米腰带，肿胀的河流和溪流很快将密西西比州的水平推向了自1927年臭名昭著的洪水以来从未见过的水平。许多驳船站变成了孤独的岛屿，随着数百万立方英尺的水冲而奔波，沙袋岛。在密西西比州下部的每一秒钟。

2011年的洪水将以几种方式袭击农业：

（1）美国需要创纪录的玉米面积和收益率才能重建耗尽的股票。现在，无论是通过直接洪水还是通过农民无法种植从北达科他州到阿肯色州的雨饱满英亩，可能会丢失1至300万英亩的土地。损失300万英亩土地可能意味着今年损失了4亿蒲式耳急需的玉米产量，有可能削减2012年9月的结束股票。

（2）在密西西比州下部的爬行中，驳船的交通放缓，以保护堤防，并确保托斯及其员工的安全，从而减慢海湾收据。

（3）高水将破坏无数驳船站的行动；有些人会失去几周的能力；其他人可能会持续几个月。就像美国危险地将玉米库存运行到零一样，这会减慢和破坏重要库存的流动。

（4）延迟的玉米种植几乎消除了2011年初的农作物玉米，这是在9月之前满足加工，出口和饲料需求所需的。

（5）首当其冲的洪水首当其冲的中南河中的一些驳船站可能会失业，直到小麦季节后，大幅降低了该地区处理和移动软红小麦的能力。

(6) Mid-South river elevators also were warehouses to some existing soft red wheat inventories, some of which may be water-damaged when businesses are finally able to assess the operations. The FDA has stringent restrictions on disposing of flood-damaged grain.

出口跟单员说,然而,大量的those river station bins are surprisingly “water-tight.” The ground is built up and then sandbagged, resulting in those “elevator islands” seen in flood photos this spring. Even if some water does get into and damage pits, conveyors and other equipment, the tanks themselves and any grain they hold may be intact once the waters recede.

In the best case, some stations will be unable to receive grain for a few weeks and barge movements may be slowed, with Gulf elevators and operations remaining largely unaffected. The result could be weaker basis for areas of the mid-South while the waters recede and firms clean up their operations.

The worst case could be millions of bushels of lost or flood damaged inventories, river stations that remain out for months, and a major disruption to logistics and supplies to the Gulf pipeline.Longer term, the loss of any acreage this year greatly increases the likelihood of this bull market and its volatility even stretching beyond 2012, again stressing the financial resources and the resilience of agribusinesses. ?

-杰基·罗姆克（Jackie Roembke）