Wheat Futures Rally After USDA Reports

USDA Quarterly Stocks Report Shows Stock Declines

• 正如预期的那样，玉米，大豆和小麦锯为一年前对股票的大量削减。
• Corn came in at 1,237 million bushels, at the upper range of market estimates, but still well below last year’s 1,919 million.
• 2020 production was revised down to 14,111 million bushels, 71 million less than the previous report.
• 大豆提供了震惊，进入了2.56亿蒲式耳，这远远高于202万的高度估计;去年的股票均为5.25亿。
• 高于预期的大豆股来自于生产的额外8100万蒲式耳。
• Wheat came in at 1,780 million bushels, at the low-end of expectations; last year’s stocks were at 2,158 million.

FBNTake On What It Means For The Farmer:The Quarterly Stocks report provided some, perhaps expected, surprises. Namely the USDA reported an extra 81 million bushels of 2020 soybean production, coming from a 0.8 bushel yield bump to 51.0 bushels per acre. It was a fairly strong bearish surprise and futures responded as such. Corn, on the other hand, saw a production drop of 71 million bushels with yields falling about one-half bushel to 171.4. However, 2020/21 feed/residual use fell to 5,604 million bushels from 5,725 million, helping keep ending stocks at 1,237 million, near the upper end of range estimates. Wheat came in at the lower end of expectations with 1,780 million bushels, versus last year’s stocks at 2,158 million.

USDA Small Grains Report Shows Decrease in Wheat Production

• The 2021 expected wheat production came in at 1,646 million bushels, at the lower end of estimates.
• This was a bigger cut than expected to the previous 2021 USDA estimate of 1,697 million bushels.
• The biggest cuts were seen in a hard red winter (777 to 750 million), white winter (176 to 137 million), and other spring (343 to 331 million).
• 大麦产量从美国农业部之前的估计增加了1200万蒲式耳，1.18亿与1.06亿美元;这主要来自51.6的产量增加到60.4蒲式耳。
• 燕麦生产估计从4100万蒲式耳略微下降至4000万;估计产量从57.4的每英亩增加到61.3蒲式耳，但面积略微向下修改。

FBNTake OnWhat It Means For The Farmer:在整个数字largely fell within expectations, the cuts to hard red winter and white winter were deeper than the trade estimated. With wheat stocks also at the low end of estimates, futures climbed on the bullish reports. Barley and oats continue to show weak production values versus previous years, mainly from poor conditions in the PNW, but barley showed a slight upward revision in production on stronger yields.

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