La Niña is Here to Stay Through Summer

A.Iowa Farm Bureaubriefing on the 2022 planting and growing season,Dennis Todey, director of USDA Midwest Climate Hub and ag climatologist, warned attendees that La Niña is going to stick around longer than initially thought.

As predicted, the U.S. did experience a La Niña winter, which brought with a cooler, dry winter with severe storm risks.

LaNiña可以拥有both positive and negative impactson agriculture. It creates more fluctuation in rain patterns which increases flooding in some areas and drought in others.

The main positive effect associated with La Niña is the increased likelihood of above-average rainfall, which is needed in the Midwest, said Todey.

On the other hand, excessive rainfall induced by La Niña, can also result in flooding of farming land and pastures.

Todey said most predictions were that the current La Niña would stay in the U.S. for the spring then fade by summer.

“它看起来像LaNiña，也可以在下冬天坚持我们，”Todey说。

这一切都没有保证，提醒托迪。他确实看到了中西部地区更高的温度和干旱的机会增加。

Todey has concern for the Plains and Southern Plains.

“That region is in drought already. A higher likelihood of being warmer, higher likelihood of being drier,” he says. “We're quite concerned about what's going to be happening in that area. And springtime is the time when they need more of that precipitation.”

The risk of drought is less for Minnesota down through Missouri and including Iowa this season, however, that region is not completely out of the woods.

“There are computer models picking up on some heat and dryness potentially later in the season,” says Todey. “Am I saying that we have major risks this summer? Not yet. But I think we do need to keep an eye on this as the season progresses.

“干旱风险持续到爱荷华州的平原甚至部分地区，”他仍在继续。“拉尼娜将继续进入夏季并继续影响产量前景。”

Yield outlooks

Todey says a La Niña year does not guarantee a bad year with regards to corn and soybean yields, but it also means not a ‘really good year.’

“在屈服于产量时，”他说。“我们将临近趋势下降到以下趋势。”

There are several impacts we might see this spring from La Niña:

• La Niñas normally raises crop prices and create more fluctuations in energy markets
• Spring freezes are more common during La Niña, especially in the Great Lakes region, thanks in large part to cooler Great Lakes temperatures and fluctuating jet stream patterns
• 一般来说，可以预期更多的降雨

—丽莎砍刀