Weekly USDA Crop Progress Report

Weekly USDA’s Crop Progress Report: Corn and HRS Behind

The USDA released their weekly crop progress report on April 29. Highlights included:

• U.S. Corn planted: 15% This number compares with 15% for the same week in 2018 but is slightly behind the 5 year average of 27%.
• Corn planting pace in the "I" States & Minnesota The USDA is reporting that planting progress in these 4 states have fallen pretty far behind their 5 year averages.
• Corn planting in Missouri and Nebraska are on pace with 2018 but are moderately behind their 5 year averages.
• Spring wheat planted for the week is 13% compared with 9% last year and well behind the 5 year average of 33%.
• Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota and Montana are all well behind their 5 year averages but close to 2018 levels.
• Reported winter wheat scores all look positive. The reported condition scores in Ohio and North Carolina make the crop there appear vulnerable.

What It Means for the U.S. Farmer:We think that the corn planting pace is “OK” as key states such as the “I” states and Minnesota have been suffering from continued wetness. The planting pace of HRS is slow and the recent snow over the weekend will push planting back even further. We believe that winter wheat condition scores are positive. In particular, we think that reported condition scores in HRW producing states do not show any production risks at the moment and appear supportive of a robust crop.

U.S. Back In China For More Trade Talks

High level discussions between China and the U.S will continue this week in Beijing as senior members from the U.S delegation include U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin meet with their Chinese counterparts in Beijing for another round of discussions.
Both countries have cited progress on issues including intellectual property and forced technology transfer.
As the negotiations continue, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He goes to Washington next week for another round of talks in what could be the end game for negotiations.
President Trump said on April 4 that a deal was “close” and could be concluded in a four week time frame. Last week, he said he would soon host Chinese President Xi at the White House. A meeting between the two leaders is seen as needed to cement an agreement.
What It Means for the U.S. Farmer:At FBN we believe that any positive development between the two nations that help resolve this long standing spat has the potential to be positive for the U.S. farmer. As we’ve mentioned in this column, we believe that the agricultural futures markets require details about the trade negotiations including commodities, volumes and times.

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)

—Kevin McNew