Soybeans Turned Lower Overnight

Soybeans turned lower overnight while corn and wheat were firmly in positive territory to start the trade day. In outside markets, crude oil advanced for the 2nd day in a row.

Grain prices found some support heading into the morning break thanks to new production estimates from Conab on Brazil’s production. Official government forecasts pegged the corn crop there at 69.1 MMT, off from a previous estimate of 76.2 MMT while soybean production was shaved from 95.6 to 95.3 MMT.

Weather overnight showed rains in NE/SD of 0.5 to 1.0 inches while southern IN/IL also received beneficial rains. Showers into Friday will favor Kansas, Missouri, eastern Iowa, southeast Minnesota, southwest Wisconsin, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana. This will leave a few spots in south-central Nebraska, west-central Illinois, Michigan, northern Ohio, and the eastern Dakotas (10 to 15% of the Midwest) most likely to see moisture stress.

In the 6 to 10 day forecast rains will cover much of the Midwest, while 11 to 15 day rains favor the upper Midwest and may trim back dry spots in North Dakota and around the Great Lakes. Warmer temperatures return in the 6 to 15 day for the Midwest, including a warmer 11 to 15 day trend versus yesterday. However, this still limits mid 90s to mainly Missouri/Kansas/Nebraska and leaves most of the Midwest with peak highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. The lack of more severe heat will limit concerns for pollinating corn, although warmer/drier conditions in the 16 to 30 day for the northeast 1/4 of the belt could still allow some stress

Crude inventories fell by 6.7 million barrels in the week to July 1 to 520.9 million, compared with analysts' expectations for a decrease of 2.3 million barrels. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub rose by 80,000 barrels, American Petroleum Institute said.

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—Kevin McNew