季度谷物股票看跌

Export Sales Announcement

私人出口商向美国农业部出口局报告了828,000公吨大豆在2018/2019营销年度向中国交付。

USDA 3月1日季度谷物股票看跌；应该增加随身携带

The USDA’s March 1 grain stocks was a bearish report for the three major exchange-traded commodities —corn, soybeans and wheat — as all three commodities showed larger than analyst estimated inventories.

玉米股：Analysts estimated March 1 corn stocks were 8.33 BBU and the actual number reported by USDA-NASS was 8.6 BBU or a 270 MBU difference. This was a bearish surprise.

小麦库存：分析师估计3月1日全麦量为1.55 BBU，USDA-NASS报告的实际数量为1.59 BBU，是40,000蒲式耳的差异。该数字是自2000年以来的第二大3月股票数量。估计的HRS股票最为看跌。

大豆股：分析师估计为2.68 BBU和实际USDA均报告2.72 BBU都是看跌。2.72 BBU 3月1日的股票数字是有记录以来最大的游行库存，是美国/中国贸易战的受害者。

这对美国农民意味着什么：The USDA’s March 1 stocks reports were bearish all primary U.S. commodities as disappearance is not occurring at a rate reflected in the March WASDE. Given the challenging year for U.S. corn, soybean and wheat export programs expect the USDA to lower exports along with the feed & residual categories in the April WASDE and raise ending stocks. Now more than ever, the U.S. farmer needs a trade deal with the Chinese to help with disappearance.

美国农业部的潜在种植：看跌玉米，支持大豆和棉花

三月报告是NASS对即将到来的作物年的首个基于调查的估计，其次是6月底的类似基于调查的报告。预计玉米的上升和大豆英亩的下降是预计的，但是棉花和春季小麦的下降给人留下了意外的看法。

USDA估计的种植玉米英亩为2019/20年作物年为92.8 MA。分析师估计有91.3 Ma的种植英亩，差异为+3.7 MA。玉米英亩的数量是看跌，因为实际的USDA数量比91.3 Ma的分析师估计高1.5 mA。

2019/20年作物年估计种植的大豆英亩估计为84.6 mA。分析师估计有86.16 mA种植的英亩，差异为-4.59 MA YOY或-5.1％。大豆英亩的数字是看好的，因为实际报告的数字比分析师所寻找的数字低-1.5 MA。

美国农业部的“其他春小麦”普兰特的估计d acres, including the hard and soft varieties, at 12.83 MA was a bullish surprise, as the market was looking for an increase in wheat acres to 13.4 MA. The decline of 400,000, -3% YoY, in the key growing states is led by the sharp reduction in Montana acres, which lost 300,000 acres from 2018.

这对美国农民意味着什么：棉花，春麦和大豆英亩的下降可能有助于为现金和期货价格提供一些支持，因为随着英亩的下降，产量会下降。玉米英亩的数字与不断增长的2019/20随身携带并不是看涨的案例。大豆英亩可能是价格的积极发展，但估计的初始股票数量将是一个挑战。

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-凯文·麦克纽（Kevin McNew）