Grains Were Modestly Lower Overnight Following A Lackluster USDA Report

Grains were modestly lower overnight following yesterday’s lackluster USDA supply and demand report. In outside markets, equity futures were higher as S&P futures took a run at the 2,000 mark again while crude oil was modestly lower, but managed to come back from steeper losses in the night session.

昨天的美国农业部报告显示一些变化supply and demand tables. US corn and wheat carryout was unchanged from February after traders had been expecting an increase in stocks on weaker exports. Soybean carryout was higher thanks to a 10 MB decrease in domestic crush. In the global situation, India’s wheat crop was reduced 2.5 MMT which brought world carryout down more than expected, while USDA kept corn and soybean production unchanged for both Brazil and South America. After the close yesterday, the Rosario Grain Exchanged bumped up its forecast for Argentina’s soybean crop to 59 MMT and 24.5 MMT for corn. USDA has the crops there pegged at 58.5 and 27.0, respectively.

Weather continues to be an issue in the Plains wheat area as the latest models show a mostly dry bias. The forecast model run continues to suggest restricted precipitation in hard red winter wheat county over the next week to ten days which leaves a small amount of concern about the long range outlook. There is some chance of precipitation March 17-24, but it appears to be fairly light. Meanwhile flooding rain will continue into Friday in the Delta and in a part of the lowermost Midwest. Follow up precipitation during mid- to late-week next week will likely aggravate the situation. A prolonged period of dry weather will be needed before spring fieldwork can resume. Some replanting of early corn will be needed and a small portion of wheat produced in the Delta will be damaged by this week’s flooding rain.

Oil prices dipped on Thursday after U.S. crude hit 2016 highs the day before and Brent shot back over $40 per barrel, with analysts warning that larger gains would be unwarranted as a global glut continues to outweigh strong demand. Expectations of more stimulus from the European Central Bank (ECB) this week, which would strengthen the dollar against the euro and potentially hamper dollar-traded oil imports, also weighed on markets. "The ECB will cut deposit rates by 20 bps (basis points) and extend its bond buying program by one year. This could be bullish for the dollar and bearish for oil," French bank Societe Generale said.

WEEKLY EXPORT SALES

Actual Expected

Corn 1,192.3 800-1,200

Soybeans 478.4 400-700

Wheat 433.5 200-500

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—Kevin McNew