Grains Up in the Overnight

Monday brought a new week of intense selling pressure in the grains and Tuesday’s overnight trade found only a modest recovery from the lows established the day before. In night trade, wheat was up 4, corn was up 2, and nearby soybeans posted a 5 cent advance.

On Monday, NOPA’s crush forecast for May came in at 148.4 MB, well above analyst estimates of 147.3 MB. However, substantially higher soy oil stocks kept a lid on soybean prices with inventories of soy oil pegged at 1.58 billion pounds versus estimates of 1.40 billion pounds. With ample soyoil stocks and concerns about Chinese defaults on soymeal purchases, there was little need for the soybean market to rally on this news. After the close, USDA estimated that 67 percent of the crop was in good to excellent condition, below the 69 percent level that had been expected. The pace of plantings has stalled as wet weather continues to hamper the last of the crop. As of Sunday, 87 percent of the crop had been planted versus a 90 percent 5-year average for this time of year.

In corn, crop conditions also slipped a bit in USDA’s latest report going to 73 percent this week versus 74 percent last week and 76 percent this time last year. Overly wet conditions in the Southern Midwest is causing modest concerns but with ample stocks and sluggish demand it may prove difficult to see a big rally on overly wet conditions at this time of year.

For wheat, harvest pace continues to drag in the Southern Plains as rain-soaked fields hamper the progress. As of Sunday, 11 percent of the winter wheat crop has been harvested versus 4 percent last week and a 5-year average of 20 percent. Crop conditions for winter wheat were unchanged from last week at 43 percent good to excellent, while spring wheat increased one percent to 70 percent. In export news, Japan's Ministry of Agriculture is seeking to buy a total of 113,117 MT of food quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close late on Thursday.

—Cody Bills