Grains Steady in the Overnight

Grains were steady overnight as hesitant investors await the monthly crop production report which will be released at 11:00 AM CDT today. Soybeans gave up gains over concerns of hot weather forecasts and expectations that the U.S. Department of Agriculture will decrease the U.S. soy stocks number.

Overnight, the Ukrainian agriculture ministry claimed that it expects Ukraine to export 35.33 million tonnes of grain in the 2016/17 season. A much larger number than the previously reported 11.64 million tonnes. The ministry and traders are expected to sign a memorandum on grain export volumes for the next season soon.

Rain is expected in much of corn the corn belt through next week. The 16-30 day forecast is showing a return of showers to the western part of the Midwest. Temperature high’s are expected to start creeping back into the 90’s across the corn belt. Low 100’s possible in Nebraska, Kansas, and southern South Dakota. Rainfall is expected ahead of the heat which should help limit the stress on in the far western area along with the great lakes area.

Crop conditions were released yesterday afternoon. Corn being reported to be up 1% at 76% good to excellent compared to 69% last year. The crop is 32% silking versus the 26% average. Soybeans also saw an increase of 1% at 71% good to excellent. At this time last year soybeans were 62% good-to-excellent. Crop is 7% setting pods versus the 5% average. Spring wheat is down 2% at 70% good-to-excellent. Last year spring wheat was 71% good-to-excellent. Winter wheat is 66% harvested versus the 65% average.

Yesterday, oil prices fell to a two-month low on reduced fears of oversupply. However, in the overnight, prices were seen to bounce back. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said there is still an excess of stocks in the market and it might take a long time to reduce the inventory overhang.

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

—Kevin McNew