谷物Continue their Rally Overnight

谷物continued their rally overnight with soybeans leading the complex higher on a 4-cent advance reaching its highest mark since December. The US dollar also firmed after yesterday’s steep slide with S&P futures and crude oil also finding strength in early trade.

Brazilian soybean export premiums surged over the past week even as the lineup of vessels waiting to load soybeans at local ports swelled, raising demurrage costs as the harvest peaks, shipping agents and traders said on Thursday. Prompt export premiums increased to 38/41 cents/bushel (buy/sell) over May futures in Chicago, from 24/28 cnt/bu a week ago, price discovery agency Certo said on Thursday. The increase in spot free onboard export prices was similarly reflected in later deliveries until August.

SRW acres across the delta and mid-south have had 10 inches of rain over a broad area this week. Some areas have had much more. This opens the door to another poor quality SRW crop but also puts some delays in corn planting in these states. The hard wheat states have a cold weather threat that starts to show in longer term forecast near the end of March. The weather to date has pushed wheat well ahead of normal development so this timing could damage wheat if the forecast comes true.

Corn had solid exports on Thursday coming in at the high end of expectations. As the US dollar continues to come under pressure in recent months, this sets the stage for a more competitive position for US exports, which should be especially beneficial to wheat and corn.

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a dba of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

—Kevin McNew