谷物弹跳薄弱

In the overnight session the grains traded higher with wheat up 4 cents, soybeans up 5 1/2 cents and corn unchanged going into the morning pause in trade. The U.S. dollar is trading down sharply this morning after retail sales revealed no growth in April. Crude oil is trading up 78 cents this morning.

昨天，美国农业部发布了对玉米和小麦影响不大的五月瓦斯（Wasde）报告，但在一天结束时将大豆送入了尾巴。在压碎和出口增加后，旧农作物大豆需求将增长了2000万蒲式耳，增加了3.5亿蒲式耳。南美的产量增加和不祥的新作物结束了5亿蒲式耳的库存预测，看涨的旧作物惊喜掩盖了。平均贸易猜测预计新作物的新作物总计为4.43亿蒲式耳。

Old crop corn ending stocks increased 23 million bushels to 1.851 billion bushels which was shy of expectations. A 48 million bushel decline in feed and residual use was partially offset by a 25 million bushel increase in exports. New crop ending stocks were mostly on par with expectations with 15/16 carryout forecast at 1.746 billion bushels with a new crop yield pegged at 166.8 bushels per acre.

在美国农业部将进口量增加了500万蒲式耳，并将出口减少了2000万蒲式耳之后，旧作物小麦的结束库存增加了2500万蒲式耳，增加到7.09亿蒲式耳。最近几个每周的报告显示，取消总计为597,000公吨，出口速度最近一直在变化。预计新的农作小麦结局股票为7.93亿蒲式耳，高于7.5亿蒲式耳的预期。

2015/16营销年度的全球携带似乎高于对大豆和小麦的期望。全球小麦结尾股的固定为203.32 mmt，高于14/15及以上193.53 mmt的平均贸易猜测。与192.5 mmt的旧作物携带相比，全球玉米终止库存预计将大部分稳定在191.94 mmt。预计全球大豆携带者将显着上升至96.22 mmt，高于95.17mmt的预期，去年结束了85.54 mmt的股票。

-科迪比尔