Corn Export Sales Gaining Momentum

The market is expected to open at 8:30 AM CST today. This morning there was a reportable sale of 210,000 metric tons of corn to Japan for the 14/15 marketing year.

Export sales were released this morning, delayed a day due to the New Year’s holiday. Wheat sales were reported within analyst expectations with 354,100 metric tons booked for 14/15 delivery over the last week. Corn sales beat analyst expectations with 895,100 metric tons which brings cumulative sales to 26.9 million metric tons which is now ahead of pace to meet USDA expectations. Soybean export sales were on the lower side of expectations only booking 611,000 metric tons. However, soybean sales have been running well ahead of pace in the first four months of this year’s marketing season, and has already booked 88% of the sales expected for this marketing year.

Ethanol production was released on Wednesday showing that weekly ethanol production dropped 20,000 barrels per day to 972,000 BPD from the marketing year high reported last week. Ethanol stocks increased 479,000 barrels to 18.09 million barrels which was the largest stocks number since October 10th. The decline in production is due to the holiday week, but is also beginning to feel the effects of declining ethanol crush margins. Over the last two weeks ethanol margins fell $1 per bushel and are now $1.50 below the crush margins last year during this time.

Cold weather looks to return to the plains late this weekend, but winterkill concerns during that event are relatively low. The middle of next week shows more risk of a winterkill risk with temperatures expected to usher in low temperatures between -5 and -10 across 2/3 of the wheat belt. Of the area effected, only ¼ of the northern region is protected by snow cover.

—Cody Bills