Chinese Corn Buy Not Fundamentally Based

Chinese Corn Buy Not Fundamentally Based

The corn market had a hard time holding on to its euphoric rally on Friday following the announcement of China buying 300,000 MT of U.S. corn.

Given where U.S. FOB values are relative to other players (Brazil, Argentina, & Ukraine), plus the corresponding freight costs, we see U.S. CIF delivered prices of U.S. corn into China trading at about a $0.25 cent a bushel premium to Brazil and other competitors. In other words, it seems likely the transaction was more about China showing some modest good-will to the U.S. here and less about a long-term trade.

确实，与大多数外国竞争相比，美国进入所有主要买家的价值观继续受到高估，这使得进入春季和夏季的出口速度是一个挑战。

What It Means for the U.S. Farmer:目前，此COFCO出口套餐是一个好兆头，并帮助将生命带入了玉米期货市场。不管意图是什么，在贸易谈判中或某种抢先行动中的善意迹象，该发展对于最近几乎缺乏任何积极催化剂的市场来说都是令人鼓舞的新闻。

Egypt’s GASC Altering It’s Payment Terms For Grain Imports

Egypt, the world's largest wheat importer, will revert to a previous payment structure and will start to pay its grain suppliers within 180 days instead of “immediately”.

Egypt's state grain buyer GASC had said in January it would start immediate on-sight payment after obtaining financing from Islamic Trade Finance Corp for its international purchasing tenders.

Before the January announcement, GASC used a deferred payment system. The deferred payment system was used when foreign-exchange shortages and inflation plagued Egypt's economy, causing an appreciation in wheat prices offered to the state buyer at its international tenders.

目光付款意味着供应商更便宜的报价，因为在国际招标向GASC提出要约时，将从交易者的计算中取出延期付款的成本。

作为面包补贴计划的一部分，开罗每年为谷物支付约15亿美元的费用，埃及近1亿人中的许多人都依靠该计划。

One reason for the shift in payment terms may be a result of Egypt running low on foreign exchange reserves. Switching from a short term, “immediate” payment structure to a longer term structure can add to the cost of importing grains.

What It Means For The U.S. Farmer:并不多。是很困难的to ascertain how restructuring payment terms can be a direct benefit for the U.S. farmer. If Egypt’s foreign exchange reserves are running low, the political side of the global wheat trade can rear its ugly head. Meaning that perhaps other nations will compete for Egypt’s wheat export business by offering Egypt favorable state-backed payment terms to steer business in their favor. Meaning, perhaps countries in the Black Sea, Russia, are willing to offer favorable payment terms in exchange for GASC buying committed volumes of wheat.

交易期货，套期保值和猜测的风险可能很大。FBN BR LLC（NFA ID：0508695）

—Kevin McNew