China's Pork Imports May Double

中国的猪肉进口可能会在2019年翻一番到2吨

随着非洲猪发烧减少世界顶级猪市场的产量，中国的2019年猪肉进口将翻一番，至200万吨（MT）。

China has reported 113 outbreaks of the contagious disease since August 2018 though industry insiders say several outbreaks are going unreported.

Some private analysts estimate that Chinese YoY pork production could decline by 20% during 2019. 2019 production estimates are between 50-51 MT, down from the 54-55 MT produced in 2018.

目前，美国农业部预测2019年中国猪肉的生产为51.4吨，同比为-5％，进口量为200万吨。

China's pig feed demand in the 2018-19 crop year that runs from October to September could decline by 12% as soymeal demand is estimated to fall by 5.5%.

African swine fever has a high mortality rate in pigs and has no vaccine.

What it means for U.S. Farmers:The struggles of China’s hog herd represents a mixed bag for the U.S. farmer. From one perspective China’s need to import more pork can be beneficial to the U.S. hog industry and related feed inputs as pork exports from the U.S. have grown since mid-February despite the Chinese’s 60% tariff on U.S. pork. On the other hand, slowing meal demand has the ability to temper Chinese soybean imports which would be bearish.

EPA可能会授予39个乙醇植物的部分生产豁免

The Environmental Protection Agency is likely to issue partial waivers to some of the 39 small refineries seeking relief from the nation's biofuel laws for 2018.

The agency typically either approves or denies a waiver request in full, and has only granted one partial exemption since the start of the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard program more than a decade ago.

EPA将在3月底之前决定2018年的豁免申请，即RFS下的合规年截止日期。

RFS要求炼油厂每年将某些生物燃料（如乙醇）混合在一起，或从那些做的那些含有混合信用额。但是，每天少于75,000桶的小型设施可以证明合规性会导致他们重大的财务压力可以寻求豁免。

What it means for U.S. Farmers:The EPA’s granting production exemptions could work two ways. One result would be a softening of local corn basis in the areas where the 39 facilities are located and would be a negative. The second is that a reduction in production which could help facilitate a draw on stocks would could help ethanol prices rise which would stimulate demand for corn in other markets.

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—Kevin McNew