Brazil's Soy Exports Declining

Brazil’s Soy Exports Seen Declining By 17% YoY In 2019

Brazilian ag consultant Safras & Mercado is estimating that Brazil soybean exports will decline by 17% YoY or by 14 MMT on a lower than estimated production.

MTD March soybean exports have accelerated over the last week and are running at an aggressive pace despite varied reports that local Brazilian soy producers have been holding back supplies in an attempt to stimulate prices.

According to a weekly report by Brazil's trade ministry, soy exports are averaging 532,000 TMT per “work” day during March, or +26.9% YoY.

In March 2018 Brazil exported 8.81 MMT of soybeans. With 2 weeks left in the month, Brazil has exported 4.8 MMT.

While the recent trade talks in January and February between the U.S. and China have produced some positive activity for the U.S. export program the Brazilian export pace is attributed to both an early harvest and an existing book of trade commitments.

What it means for U.S. Farmers:“All else equal” a decline in Brazilian soy production can translate to a decline in exports which can benefit the U.S. producer. Obviously more involved here as the both the political economy, trade negotiations, and Chinese soybean demand structure may have been altered by the African swine flu.

Ukraine’s Corn Exports +69% YoY

Ukraine has exported an additional 700,000 MT of grain since last Wed., with corn sales driving total grain exports +20% YoY to 35 MMT.

Corn exports in 2019 have led Ukraine’s export program higher and at 18.4 MMT are +69% YoY.

At 12 MMT Ukraine’s total wheat exports, are running -12% YoY but milling wheat exports have been strong at +8% YoY. The increase in milling wheat exports has been offset by a decline in feed wheat exports which are down 23% YoY.

What it means for U.S. Farmers:Ukraine’s prioritizing corn over wheat exports this marketing year continues to take its toll on U.S. exports. We continue to monitor the US/Ukraine FOB spreads for signals of where U.S. corn is competitive.

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—Kevin McNew