Brazil Soybean Crop Estimates

Latest Analyst Estimate Poll Has Brazil Soy Crop at 114 MMT

Brazil's 2018/19 soybean crop will total just above 114 MMT as the return of rains in February helped reduce losses caused by a drought earlier in the season.

Brazil, the world's largest soybean exporter, was initially expected to produce a crop greater than 120 MMT after 36 million hectares expansion of planted area.

Production is estimated at 114.24 MMT, -4.2% YoY and slightly below the 114.59 MMT forecast in February.

Yields in Mato Grosso do Sul and Paraná have declined by an estimated 15% YoY while yields in Matopiba have declined by an estimated 13% YoY.

More than two-thirds of Brazil's soy area had been harvested through Thursday of last week.

What It Means for the U.S. Farmer:Possibly a net positive for the U.S. soy producer. The news of Brazilian soy production problems are well known. As the harvest continues, and the regional production and yield figures become publicized there is an opportunity for the U.S. to win some export business from Brazil. This opportunity increases as the Brazilian soy producer has been reportedly holding back supplies to simulate prices.

Export Sales Announcement

Export sales of 120,000 metric tons of soft red winter wheat for delivery to Egypt during the 2018/2019 marketing year.

Export sales of 150,000 metric tons of hard red winter wheat for delivery to Iraq. Of the total 50,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2018/2019 marketing year and 100,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2019/2020 marketing year.

Argentina and Brazil Corn Crops Showing No Signs of Problems

South America’s corn crops are not struggling this year. Over the next few months, South American countries are predicted to produce a corn crop at least 26 MMT more corn than last year.

As of March 21, Argentina had harvested 10% of its corn crop, which is roughly the typical pace. At an estimated 46 MMT, the country is predicted to have record-large output.

Brazil's second corn crop, safrinha, which is planted after soybeans are harvested, will rise significantly from the previous cycle thanks to beneficial weather and a bigger planted area. Brazil may harvest 66.22 MMT of safrinha, in the 2018-19 season, +22.9% YoY when adverse weather conditions slashed yields and production.

Brazil's safrinha planted area grew an estimated +4.8% YoY to 12.09 million hectares.

What It Means for the U.S. Farmer:Consistently good corn weather conditions in the southern hemisphere is a negative for the U.S. corn export program. There is obviously a lot of time and a lot of geography for the corn crops in Argentina and Brazil meaning that problems can still arise. Currently, the global supply of feed grains is robust and the U.S. dollar is strong versus the Argentine peso and the Brazilian real. An above trend southern hemisphere corn crop is not bullish for the U.S. and can keep prices range bound.

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)

—Kevin McNew