U.S. Ag Economy Barometer Falls in April

四月，Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometerrecorded the fourth largest one-month drop since data collection began in October 2015. The barometer, which is a sentiment index based on a monthly survey of 400 agricultural producers across the U.S., declined 18 points to a reading of 115, down from 133 in March.

The 18-point decline in the index was the fourth largest one-month fall in the barometer since data collection began in October 2015. The barometer’s decline was driven by worsening perceptions of both current economic conditions and weaker expectations for the future as the Index of Current Conditions fell 21 points to a reading of 99 while the Index of Future Expectations declined 16 points to a reading of 123.

生产者的负面情绪进一步通过他们对农业行动进行大量投资的看法引导出来。现在认为大型投资的生产者的百分比从一个月之前的26％下降到22％，而现在认为大量投资的百分比从3月份的69％增加到74％。当结合这些答复时，将大型农业投资指数推向4月份的48次，比三月低于3月9日，并于2015年下旬以来投资指数的第四次读数。

Farmers’ expectations for farmland prices in the upcoming 12-months also weakened in April as the percentage expecting higher values fell to 13% from 14% while the percentage expecting lower values increased to 28% from 25%.

The largest response category, those expecting farmland values to remain about the same, fell to 59% from 61%.

Although the one-month change in farmers’ perspective on farmland values was more modest than the decline in the investment index, it still stands in sharp contrast to the perception producers had of farmland values a year earlier. In April 2018, 18% of producers expected higher farmland values, while 64% expected values to remain about the same, and 18% expected values to decline, a notably more optimistic outlook than recorded in April 2019.

To gauge producers’ expectations for 2019, this month’s survey asked whether respondents expect their farms’ 2019 financial performance to be better than, worse than, or about the same as in 2018? Over half (56 percent) of farmers in the April survey said they expect their farms’ financial performance to be about the same as last year. However, 27% of farmers said they expect this year’s financial performance to be worse than last year. In comparison, when the same question was included in the April 2018 survey, just 19% of respondents expected worse financial performance for their farm than in the prior year.

来竞争w the full report,点击这里.