圆锥：将塑造美国农村经济的力量

CoBank Knowledge Exchange已经发布了它The Year Ahead: Forces That Will Shape the U.S. Rural Economy in 2022报告。

According to the report, the U.S. economy is poised to slow in 2022 relative to 2021, but economic growth will continue at a pace that is well above average.

自2020年中期以来，消费者为经济复苏提供了动力，这将在来年持续。预计2022年消费者支出预计将增加4％至5％，而GDP预计将增长约4.5％。

该报告研究了将塑造农业和市场部门的几个关键因素，这些因素为美国各地的农村社区提供服务

Global Economy: Fragile Growth

If the global economy is to perform well in 2022, it will do so despite three significant headwinds: a persistent pandemic, monetary tightening in the U.S. and slowing growth in China.

当我们进入大流行的第三年,公司VID-19 virus is still in control of the world economy, and it will likely remain so through much of the first half of the year.

The ongoing threat of virus mutations that could evade vaccines will keep economic uncertainty unusually high. Nevertheless, strong consumer demand throughout much of the developed world will keep the economy humming.

美国经济：劳动和供应链以改善，通货膨胀可能不会

The pandemic has significantly altered how our economy functions, with the greatest impact coming from what we consume. Through October 2021, Americans spent 18% more on goods and about 1% less on services than they did in 2019.

Compounded by a labor shortage, it is easy to see why supply chains have become one of the biggest economic challenges of the pandemic — demand has significantly exceeded the capacity of our existing system.

Fortunately, we have likely experienced the worst of the bottlenecks, which should diminish in the coming year. For most consumers and businesses, a key focus in 2022 will be tackling the effects of inflation.

在2022年初，企业的运营和投入成本将保持很高，他们将继续寻找将这些成本传递给消费者的方法。

Monetary Policy: Tough Fed Decisions Approaching

来年可能会制定美联储十多年来所面临的一些最具挑战性的货币决定。

CoBank expects the Fed to first raise interest rates in late summer or early fall 2022. Of course, this decision will be dependent on virus impacts that none of us can now predict, so financial markets will function amidst a high level of monetary uncertainty in the first half of 2022.

在未来几个月内，市场将对美联储将期望的一件事更加清楚其通货膨胀方法。

美国政府：支出，党派控制

As the nation looks ahead to a new year, the federal policy machinery is very focused on a few key factors that will impact the ability of the administration to lead and Congress to legislate.

众议院和参议院农业委员会plan oversight hearings in 2022 to begin the farm bill planning for 2023. While that is important and timely work, the widely expected change in partisan control of Congress following the 2022 elections may render much of that work perfunctory. Legislative expectations should be modest for 2022.

U.S. Farm Economy: Increased Costs, Trade Battle with China

美国农场经济将继续在2021年夏季出现的持续供应链功能障碍和成本通货膨胀问题上继续挣扎。

从历史上讲，几乎所有农作物，水果和蔬菜以及干草等几乎所有农作物生产的成本结构的提高将远远超出。

CoBank economists do not anticipate any significant pullback in farm-level costs until Q3, at the earliest. The expected decline in direct government payments in 2022 will further squeeze farm income statements.

美国农业的单一最大的通配符是向中国出口销售，目前是美国农产品的最大出口市场。

特种作物：被劳动，干旱和运输挤压

美国西部正在进行的干旱和水限制的劳动力和运输成本上升，将在2022年主导特种作物部门。农业劳动尚未免疫大流行导致的“大辞职”。

美国水果和蔬菜面积将继续转向需要减少手动劳动的机械收获的农作物。美国西部持续的干旱条件造成的较小的收获将使水果，坚果和蔬菜的价格更高

Grain, Farm Supply and Biofuels: Inflation, Volatility Create Mixed Outlook

谷物，农场供应和生物燃料行业进入2022年，面临着通货膨胀的逆风，供应链瓶颈和高能价格的混合，这些挑战也带来了挑战。

CoBank economists view the short-term outlook as mixed for grain, challenging for farm supply and positive for biofuels. Biofuels enter 2022 with considerable momentum as the fuel ethanol complex is revving on all cylinders driven by strong consumer demand and higher gasoline and fuel ethanol prices.

Beyond ethanol, 2022 should see the continued build-out of soybean crushing and soy oil refining capacity to support the expected growth in renewable diesel.

Animal Protein: Lean Supplies, Strong Demand Bolster Prices Despite Export Unknowns

劳工和统计局的所有肉类，家禽，鱼类和鸡蛋的消费者价格指数在10月份达到了历史最高，同比增长12％。随着餐厅和杂货价格的调整，消费者水平的肉类通货膨胀可能会持续到新年。

虽然较高的零售价格可能会限制消费量的增长，但较紧密的牛供应，正在进行的肉鸡饲养员问题和SOW牛群的降低应至少在2022年上半年支持有利的处理器利润率。

Although beef exports have been robust during the second half of 2021, the collective U.S. protein opportunity to China may have already peaked.

Dairy: Producer Margins to Improve, but Logistics Hinder Exports

由于奶农减少了牛群的大小，以应对成本通货膨胀压力，因此美国和世界各地的牛奶供应将在2022年收紧。国内和全球对乳制品需求的弹性越界的交叉电流随着牛奶供应增长而减缓的乳制品需求将使2022年的牛奶价格上涨。

Combined with softer feed costs following big corn and soybean harvests, producer margins will finally improve. However, high costs for labor, construction, and freight will limit upside margin potential and dampen milk production growth. For dairy processors, tighter availability of milk will mean some processors get squeezed.

Rural Infrastructure: Managing on the Grid-Edge

随着电力消费者的要求迅速改变并重新定义买卖双方之间的关系，所有人的目光都将关注网格边缘技术。这些可消费者可访问的资源已经在破坏供应商的百年历史，单向的权力流动。

网格边缘技术面临的挑战是它们在供应商和消费者之间创造了双向流程，并破坏了消费者可能需要的可预测需求。

Electric cooperatives have a proven track record of agility and are possibly better positioned to work with consumers to beneficially manage the proliferation of grid-edge technology.

Rural Communications: Cable Market Competition Heats Up

With bipartisan support to bridge the digital divide, the government funding flood gates are expected to open in 2022.

The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act includes $65 billion in broadband funding, of which $42.5 billion will be allocated to the states to build networks in unserved and underserved areas.

由于消费者趋势和电信公司的竞争有限，有线运营商在过去几年中享有强劲的宽带订户增长，但竞争应该在2022年开始升温。

Read the full reporthere。