Aug 14, 2017

PL Fees: Why They Vary Widely and Lose Elevators Money

Merchandisers should know their risk before developing a plan for harvest.

根据您居住的国家的哪个部分,您可以在以后的价格(PL),延迟价格(DP)或没有成立的价格(NPE)。所有这些术语描述了相同类型的合同:农民在交付时向商业谷物处理栏提供了粮食的合法标题,并选择后面等待一段时间来设定价格和基础。我们将在此列中将其称为PL。

Why PL Fees vary so much

为此服务收取的费用可能会从一年甚至年内差异。有一些市场力量导致这种变化:体积,传播和基础。这些因素均直接与谷物处理栏的粮食销售裕度有关。

  1. Volume: Is there plenty of space to hold all the PL bushels? If so, PL Fees will not need to be high. You typically see this in summer when there isn’t much crop left and there is plenty of empty space, and many grain buyers will offer free PL. On the other hand, when there is a lot of crop to handle and it is overwhelming the amount of space available in a market, PL Fees can get very high. This is what we see in years with large old crop carryover and/or bumper crops that get harvested quickly.
  2. 传播:另一个更具体的因素决定PL费用​​在期货市场蔓延。作为一般规则,大型携带均值较大的PL费用和平坦或倒置市场意味着下部PL费用甚至免费PL。这是由于机会成本简单。如果市场支付携带(延期期货月不仅仅是附近的期货月),那么任何有能力购买和持有该谷物的人都可以收集这种差异。在一个场景中,空间的所有者是这个机会,因为农民不允许他购买他正在使用他的空间并相应地收取的谷物。
  3. Basis: This cause for PL Fees is a numerical representation of the volume discussion we had above. If basis is -50 at harvest and -10 for delivery two months after harvest, the elevator has an arbitrage opportunity to make 40 cents on bushels it buys that day and sells for two months after harvest. If the elevator instead allows a farmer to PL in his space, he cannot make that margin. Therefore, he must charge more. If basis is very high at the time the farmer enters into a PL contract, the PL Fees will be lower.

058-063_FG0817_MerchantsEdge严格上采取自由市场经济学,大多数市场应收取比在收获时实际上的收费。他们可以在传播和基础上进行数学,并确定它们可以使50美分/蒲式耳持有谷物。然而,由于对客户的贴纸休息,他们决定不收取这一点,他们缺乏信心,以至于他们可以实际上可以用购买的粮食填补空间,或缺乏对他们空间价值的认识。

How elevators lose money charging PL Fees

There are two common misconceptions related to PL that can be dangerous to a grain elevator’s profitability if the grain merchandiser believes them:

  1. PL允许您在收获时销售所有您想要的所有您想要的空间以获得更多谷物。While it is true that you do have legal title to the grain and can move it without having any legal ownership fears, selling PL bushels at harvest can be a recipe for disaster financially. As a grain elevator that profits from basis changes, selling the lowest basis of the season at harvest can pretty much guarantee a loss on those bushels in most years. A good grain merchandiser must manage his position in a way that will keep him from ever having to sell PL bushels at low harvest basis levels.
  2. PL费用担保电梯将在PL蒲式耳上盈利,以便在PL费用中获利。许多人看待PL的费用作为蒲式耳保证的保证金,因为他们正在为他们的空间中的所有机会收费或大多数机会。但是,如果您必须销售低收获基础,这笔费用通常只涵盖所有或大部分基础损失。

让我们来讨论一个真实的例子。在harvest (early October) of last year, the bid for soybeans to a large river market was -10 November futures and the bid for December delivery soybeans was +40 January futures. There was also an 8-cent carry in NOV/JAN soybean futures. This translated to a 58-cent difference in harvest basis and post-harvest basis as illustrated in Chart 1.

许多看看图表并正确地确定他们的空间值58美分,如果他们可以在收获时购买蒲式耳,并持续到12月。所以,让我们说他们会收取58美分的收费(在该国大多数地区难以做到)。如果他们在他们的空间中抱着蒲式耳并没有移动他们,他们只会使PL费用作为利润。但是,如果电梯以收获的基础销售Pl蒲式耳,那么在12月份的蒲式耳时,当农民价格上涨时,电梯将在此交易中减掉58美分。因此,58美分的费用仅涵盖其基础损失和电梯利润没有任何东西。如果电梯收取不到58美分的基础风险,他们会在蒲式耳上丢失金钱。

One could make the argument that in a year like this one, it would make sense for an elevator to charge a $1.16 minimum PL Fee to cover the 58-cent basis risk as well as the 58-cent opportunity cost of what the space is worth. We all know that won’t happen, so …

What’s the best way to manage PL bushels at harvest?

  • 意识到在收获中移动PL蒲式耳的巨大风险
  • Charge for all of the basis risk associated with PL bushels
  • Set an internal limit on how much PL you will allow in your space before switching to cash only
  • 坚持你的计划!

-Jason Wheeler

最近添加到买方的指南中

BinRite Grain Identification System

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Magazine

MarketWatch:Mar,24

US Corn Price Idxzcpaus.cm.

open: 7.2509
high: 7.395
low: 7.2422
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美国大豆价格IDXZSPAUS.CM

open: 16.5754
high: 16.8053
低:16.5456
close: 16.6347

美国硬红色冬小麦价格Idxkepaus.cm.

开放:10.5435
高:10.6025
low: 10.2546
关闭:10.3218

US Soft Red Winter Wheat Price IdxZWPAUS.CM

开放:10.4359
高:10.5291
low: 10.187
关闭:10.2379