将大豆打破through resistance?

In the overnight session the grains are trading slightly higher with corn unchanged, soybeans up 3 cents and wheat up 2 cents. The U.S. dollar is trading .35 percent higher this morning and crude oil is lower by 25 cents. U.S. employment figures were better than expected this morning with nonfarm payrolls increasing 215,000 last month giving more justification for the Fed to begin raising interest rates. With the strong employment data this morning the U.S. dollar is rallying against the Euro.

Next Wednesday the USDA will release its August Supply and Demand report and its Crop Production report. This month’s supply and demand report will include the results of the resurveyed planted acreage in the states that were delayed due to excessive rainfall. This month’s crop production report will be watched closely because it is the first survey-based yield projections this year.

This week both Informa and FC Stone released their crop production forecasts below the July USDA report. Informa pegged corn yield at 165.4 bushels per acre and soybean yield at 45.4 bushels per acre compared to the USDA’s July estimates of 166.8 BPA and 46 BPA respectively. FC Stone estimated corn yield at 165 bushels per acre and soybean yield at 45 bushels per acre.

This morning’s updated 6-10 day outlook continues to show dryer than normal conditions across the Midwest and the 8-14 day forecast offers little relief. With 54 percent of the soybean crop setting pods, this dryness could have negative impacts on this growing seasons yield potential. The weather forecast will likely support soybeans after dismal old crop export sales triggered selling near the resistance of the 100 day moving average on Thursday.

This morning the European Commission estimated total cereal output in 15/16 at 302 metric tons, down from 307 metric tons last month and a substantial decline from 329 MT grown last year.

—Cody Bills