Will Brazil transportation logistics lift U.S. soybean exports

The grains are all trading lower this morning with corn down 2, soybeans down 4 cents and wheat down 4 cents. Yesterday, mixed export news hit the market early with a 120,000 metric ton cancellation of soybeans to China followed by an announcement of a new sale that included 111,000 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations. This is the third major cancellations in the last 2 ½ weeks which signals China is switching it buying to South America.

Yesterday was the first day newly harvested Brazil soybeans arrived into crushing plants and northern ports and market the start of the first vessel being loaded at the port of Paranagua. However, news out of South America is not all positive after an announcement yesterday that the Tiete River, a key waterway in Brazil will be closed for the start of the season due to the low draft caused by a much drier than average January. Although this may not immediately affect the U.S. grain prices, the fact that Brazil delayed much of its planting due to dry weather in the fall could mean the crop comes out of the field at the same time. If this were to happen it would put increased strain on the transportation of crops to export facilities. If ports get congested and significant delays begin to occur, the U.S may see further export sales announcements that would have otherwise gone to South America.

下周，中西部的天气可能达到零温度，使一些冬小麦作物暴露在过去几周的温暖条件下降低雪覆盖后暴露于良好的温度。但是，冬季风暴朱诺应该在本周末晚些时候在整个中西部提供一些积雪。小麦继续降低趋势，受到外国买家对美国小麦缺乏兴趣的压力。

—Cody Bills