Brazil Finds Unexpected Late Corn Supply

Brazil Finds Unexpected Late Corn Supply

• Corn prices in Brazil have fallen in recent weeks on supplies from Argentina and fears in livestock exports.

• It appears some farmers have been spooked enough to let go of some of their storage, which has weighed on prices.

• There is also evidence some of the yield damage from last year’s drought was exaggerated, especially in Mato Grosso, Brazil’s biggest producing state.

• Domestic prices have fallen to their lowest levels since June, and decreased FOB levels has led the country to be an attractive export option.

FBN’sTake On What It Means:Drought caused Brazil’s 2020/21 corn crop to be cut 20%, falling from a projected 110 million tonnes to 86 million. However, that may be revised upward somewhat with Mato Grosso seemingly not suffering as much as other states. The recent price deterioration has made Brazil an attractive supplier again, and a flurry of South Korean buying is likely to be sourced from the country.

Black Sea Wheat Comments

• Russia’s wheat prices were up versus last week thanks in part to higher futures prices for Chicago and Paris wheat.

• This marks yet another week of higher prices, which has been the trend for four consecutive months.

• Russia 12.5% protein wheat was quoted around $317 per tonne (FOB) or up $5 per tonne versus last week.

• Official export data for Russia only are published for August, which totaled 5.2 million tonnes and was undershot by the trade; Sovecon sees September exports at 4.3 million tonnes with October at 3.4 million.

• If Sovecon is right, then exports to date would be down 1.4 million tonnes or about 10%, which is a much lighter volume than what others are reporting.

• Ukraine has exported 12.4 million tonnes of wheat through October versus 10.6 million tonnes last year for the same period.

• Recently, the Ukrainian government bumped the export limit up to 24.5 million tonnes; Ukraine’s harvest is up notably versus last year.

• Winter wheat planting progress is lagging for Russia with the window of opportunity closing as winter approaches.

FBN’sTake OnWhat It Means:Demand remains strong with Russia and Ukraine showing solid grain exports since the start of the marketing year. Russia is back in the game on GASC tenders with another on pending today. Winter wheat area likely will be flat in Black Sea countries given today’s prices versus a year ago, but we do need to see Russian producers make up for the delay in plantings. Overall, the situation remains supportive of global wheat prices.

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