Shift in Global Export Demand and Supply Economics

France’s AgriMer Raises French Wheat Exports to 9.5 MMT

法国农业机构Franceagrimer急剧提高了其对2018/19营销年度欧盟以外的法国软麦出口的预测。该机构表示，随着法国小麦的价格有竞争力，上升室的存在，并吸引了进口商的后期需求。

French soft wheat shipments to non-EU countries are expected to reach 9.5 MMT, +7% from 8.85 MMT projected last month and +17% YoY. The 9.5 MMT estimates could be moved higher to 10 MMT for the marketing year as the export pace in March has been torrid.

法国小麦become competitive as supplies from Russia, Romania and Ukraine have been drawn down causing a rise in FOB prices.

French wheat exports have been strong into north African countries like Morocco, Egypt and Algeria, which has imported close to 5 MMT of French wheat this year.

French ending wheat stocks are expected to be dragged down to 2.4 MMT or -18% YoY.

What it means for U.S. Farmers:The shift in the global export demand and supply economics is occurring as anticipated and that is not bullish for the U.S. wheat producer. Aside of the Iraqi business, which given the political economy was a high probability sale, the shift from the black sea origins to the French indicates that U.S. wheat remains the residual supplier to the world. With the French next in line, the U.S. exporters and futures are stuck waiting to see what the world does next. With the marketing year coming to a conclusion in May, any volume to the U.S. just gets pushed further back.

U.S./Chinese Push Back Trump/Xi Trade Summit to At Least April

A meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to resolve the ongoing trade war won't take place this month and is more likely to occur in April at the earliest.

政治专家预测，在三月左右，中国总统曾在中国总统结束前往欧盟的工作之旅后，中国习近平可能会在3月左右与特朗普总统会面。

Negotiators from both countries have been working towards a deal to resolve the trade dispute.

What it means for U.S. Farmers:The delay toward finalizing a trade deal is a certainly a negative for U.S. agricultural commodities. Combine this delay with a lack of details that includes such essential items like: procurement commitment times, volumes and products and all that is left to do is wait. We have written here many times that financial markets do not like “vague”. This recent development adds more uncertainty into the markets.

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—Kevin McNew