Reuters August WASDE Poll

路透社奥古斯特·瓦斯德（August Wasde）民意调查：玉米英亩倒下，大豆英亩上升

Reuters released their poll of surveyed analysts ahead of the USDA’s August WASDE, to be released on Monday, August 12, and it shows a decline in planted and harvested corn acres and a rise in soybean acres.

Corn: The average estimate for planted acres: 88 million acres, -3.1 MA from the July WASDE. Harvested acres: 80.0MA, -3.4 MA from July, Yield: 164.9 BPA, -1.1 BPA from July. Ending Stocks: 1.6 billion bushels -400 million bushes from July.

Soy: The average estimate for planted acres: 81 million acres, +1 MA from the July WASDE. Harvested acres: 79.9 MA, +.6 MA from July. Yield: 47.6 BPA, -.9 BPA from July. Ending Stocks: 821 million bushels +26 million bushels from July.

Wheat: 2019/20 ending stocks: Unchanged from July at 1 billion bushels.

What It Means for the U.S. Farmer:主管,我们相信that the range of estimates for corn planted, harvested acres and the yield number was large. We believe that given the range of estimates for 2019/20 corn production that the August WASDE can contain surprises. For soybeans the range of production related estimates was much narrower suggesting that a general directional consensus on the direction of the 2019/20 crop.

Chinese Soybean Imports Surge to 12-Month High During July

Fueled by positive crush margins Chinese soybean imports from Argentina and Brazil rose +8% YoY during July.

According to China’s General Administration of Customs, the country imported 8.64 million tonnes of soybeans in July, up from 8 million in the same month in 2018. The figure during July is +33% from 6.51 million tonnes in June and the highest since August 2018.

The positive crush margins were attributed to using soybeans from Argentina and Brazil as the 20% import tariff on U.S. soybean imports are not supportive Crush margins.

According to Chinese customs data, China has purchased 46.91 million tonnes of soybeans in the first seven months of the year, -11% from the same period during 2018.

What It Means for the U.S. Farmer:在FBN，我们认为，中国海关数据显示了大量大豆从南半球进口，对美国农民来说是负面的。尽管数据对我们来说并不令人惊讶，但我们认为，在2019/20年作物年内，当前政治气候内的中国市场份额失去了出口计划。

交易期货，套期保值和猜测的风险可能很大。FBN BR LLC（NFA ID：0508695）

—Kevin McNew