Market Lifted By Strong Export Sales

JUNE 30^thUSDA REPORT EXPECTATIONS

Monday, June 30th at 11:00 AM Central Time，美国农业部将释放种植的土地和6月1日^stQuarterly Stock Reports. Below are trade expectations and our bias on the numbers coming into the report. If you’d like how Grain Hedge can help your farm marketing, please call our office at877-472-4607.Click here为了建立谷物对冲交易平台的现场演示，使您可以在周一观看现场市场反应。

2014/15 U.S. Planted Acreage (Million Acres)

	3月31日st Reported	June 30th Expected
玉米	91.7	91.725
Soybeans	81.5	82.154
Wheat	55.8	55.818

Soybeans

Traders expect the USDA to report 2014/15 soybean acres at 82.15 million acres, up nearly 700,000 acres from the record acreage projected in the March 31^stProspective Planting report. Assuming yield potential remains favorable, this acreage figure would push U.S. production to 3.7 billion bushels for 2014/15, up 12% from 2013/14. It is important to keep in mind that this surge in U.S. production is coming at a time when global ending stocks are expected to increase 22% in 2014/15.

In light of these bearish fundamentals, the new crop soybean market has remained relatively strong in recent weeks. With November 2014 soybeans closing at $12.44 in Thursday’s trade session we feel there is more downside, than upside, looking toward harvest prices. With this in mind, it is our opinion that now is a good time to protect a portion of expected production using a futures or option strategy.

玉米

玉米remains a different beast in the upcoming marketing year, with few acreage revisions expected in Monday’s report. On average, analysts only expect the USDA to raise corn acres by 25,000 acres from their projection in the Prospective Planting report. This slight increase would still have overall corn acres down 4 million acres year over year, and leave overall production unchanged from 2013. World corn stocks are expected to only increase 8% year over year, well below the surge in global ending stocks expected for soybeans.

Considering a corn market which has traded lower in recent weeks and the questions surrounding new crop acreage, we feel corn has a larger chance of holding a bullish surprise in Monday’s report.

Call the office to discuss pricing strategies as we come into Monday’s USDA report. Our number is877-472-4607and can be reached between 8AM and 4PM central time each day.

不断增长的状况前景 - El Nino的影响

Today Planalytics had its web meeting focusing on the factors that would influence the intensity of the expected El Nino weather event. Senior Meteorologist Jeff Doran’s main take away was thatnot all El Nino weather events are the same呢实际上，一个温和的El Nino被归类为平均 +0.5ºC至 +1.0ºC的海面温度实际上可能导致生长季节，而降水量很小。尽管Planalytics预计会发生El Nino事件，但仍有一些指标尚未指向中等或强的周期，通常会导致更为轻度的生长条件和在整个生长季节中的水分。有关Planalytics El Nino网络会议的完整报告，请致电877-472-4607致电。

交易期货和期权损失的风险很大。
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—Cody Bills