Lower World Veg Oil Values Weigh on Soy Complex

九月大豆暗恋预计较低

• 国家油料处理器协会（NOPA）报告将于今天上午11点发布。
• The average estimate for September soybean crush is 160.8 million bushels of last month, the lowest monthly level in a year.
• Crush is expected down 2.6% from the 165.1 million bushels in August, but up 5.4% from September of last year.
• If as expected, it would still be the largest crush for the month of September on record.
• NOPA soyoil stocks at the end of September are projected at 1.412 billion pounds.
• 预计在2019年9月底，大豆库存预计将从上个月的151.9亿磅下降，低于14.42亿英镑。

fbn的Take On What It Means: September is typically among the least active months for soybean processing plants as crushers often schedule maintenance downtime as they await newly harvested beans. NOPA has reported a drop in September crushings from August in eight of the last 10 years and this year is likely to be similar. The U.S. domestic meal market remains firm due to strong animal numbers and crush demand remains supportive to bean prices.

法国农作物预测降低了

• France's farm ministry lowered its corn crop estimate to 12.7 million tonnes from 13.3 million previously and compared to last year’s 12 million.
• The ministry projects ending stocks at 2.2 million tonnes, down sharply from previous expectations of 3.1 million.
• 玉米股仍然略高于去年的200万吨。
• The soft wheat crop forecast was slightly lowered to 29.2 million tonnes and is down sharply from last year’s record 39.6 million tonnes.
• Projected exports to non-EU countries were trimmed to 6.4 million tonnes compared to 6.4 million last month, and 7.4 million last year.
• Wheat ending stocks for 2020/21 were forecast at 2.6 million tonnes versus 2.9 million last month and 3 million last year.

fbn的Take On What It Means：法国玉米作物的预测并不像某些人预期的那样糟糕，因为更大的面积部分抵消了较低的产量。由于天气不良，今年法国小麦产量今年的生产下降了近25％，因此市场预计在2020年7月至2021年6月的营销年度，小麦出口会大大下降。法国最大的小麦客户阿尔及利亚（Algeria）改变了其进口规格以允许黑海起源小麦，而俄罗斯的作物预计为8300万吨，美国可能没有太多机会捕获该业务。
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