Grains Mixed Heading into the USDA Report

Grains were mixed heading into the USDA report with soybeans holding on to a modest gain while corn and wheat sunk lower. In outside markets, crude oil dipped lower after hitting the $53 a barrel mark for the first time in a month. The US Dollar and equities were also in negative territory to start the main session.

This morning Brazil’s govt agency, CONAB, released their crop projections giving us a sneak-peek of what may lay ahead from USDA. They projected Brazil’s soy crop at 110.2 MMT, up from their previous forecast of 107.6 MMT in March. Analysts expect a USDA soy crop estimate of 109.9 MMT for Brazil, up from USDA’s March forecast of 108. For corn, CONAB came in at 91.5 MMT vs their 88.9 MMT forecast in March. Meanwhile the USDA report is expected by analysts to show a 92.4 MMT up from the March forecast of 91.5 MMT by USDA.

On Monday after the close USDA’s crop progress report showed the winter wheat crop improved to 53% good-to-excellent, up from 51% the previous week. Last year’s reading at this time was 56%. For corn, only 3% of the US crop had been planted versus 4% this time last year.

In overnight deals, a South Korea feed group purchased 60,000 MT of soymeal from South America and another feed group in South Korea purchased 63,000 MT of feed wheat of optional origin.

USDA’s monthly supply and demand report is expected to show modest gains in all three crop carry-outs not only at the US level but at the world level as well. The report will be released at 11 am CDT.

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—Kevin McNew