谷物Continue their Climb Overnight

谷物continued to move higher overnight as soybeans led the complex following Tuesday’s surprise USDA report. Meanwhile, in outside markets the US dollar and equity futures were weaker while crude oil posted modest gains.

Yesterday bought a bullish surprise to the soybean market as USDA’s first glance at the new-crop 2016 supply and demand situation showed only 300 MB of carryout versus 400 MB that had been expected by most of the trade. This lower than expected inventory number was driven largely by a 140 MB increase in exports over this year, representing an 8% year-on-year increase.

对于玉米而言，2016年新烟草的赌注低于预期的21亿蒲式耳，而预期为2.3。但这仍然代表了当年年底的18亿蒲式耳的大幅增长。在小麦中，这一消息大多是看跌的，收益率较大，而2016年英亩的收益率较低。总体上，USDA的产量仅为去年的50 MB，并使股票终止股票增加到1,029 MV，而今年的货币率为978 MB。

In other news, Farm office FranceAgriMer on Wednesday cut sharply its forecast for French soft wheat stocks at the end of the 2015/16 season as it revised downwards supply from last year's harvest and raised exports outside the European Union. The office put soft wheat stocks available to the market at 3.9 million tonnes against 5.45 million seen last month.

Crude oil was up slightly this morning but looking for direction from today’s EIA inventory data. Traders look for a 0.7 million barrel increase in stocks as compared to last week’s 2.7 million barrel build. API crude data on Tuesday was up 3.45 versus a trade estimate of only 0.3.

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

—Kevin McNew