Grain Prices Continue their Stalemate

One day to go until USDA’s crop reports that are expected to breath new life in the markets. In the meantime, grain prices continue to be in a stalemate with a modest downward bias.

USDA reported the sale of 165,000 MT of soybeans to China

Overnight China’s corn futures fell for a 2nd day in a row fueled by talk that the state may release grain from its huge stockpiles earlier than planned and at a lower price.

Weekend rains in Argentina are expected to slow the corn and soy harvest there with some flooding in the Western areas. Lighter rains are expected there next week, but widespread issues to disrupt the harvest or cause yield losses are not expected. Brazil continues to see a dry spell helping move along soy harvest and timely rains are expected mid next week to aid the 2nd season safrinha crop.

Looking ahead to Friday’s Quarterly Stocks report, all eyes will be on corn stocks which are pegged to be 8.53 billion bushels with a wide range of estimates from 8.2-8.9. Implied corn feed use from this report will be widely watched and based on expectations for stocks, this would put feed use for Quarter 2 at 8% over the previous year’s mark. That would be a sharp jump from Q1 which was up 3.6% for the year. Keep in mind USDA has penciled in an 8.4% increase in feed use for the entire marketing year, so the bar is set high for the remainder of the year.

Weekly export sales reported by USDA this morning were strong for wheat and soybeans, but disappointing for corn.

Export Sales-

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—Kevin McNew