Crude Races Higher in the Overnight

Grains found some modest strength overnight with wheat leading the advances after the sharp sell-off in the past week. In outside markets, crude oil raced higher overnight nearly posting a $2 a barrel advance while US stock futures were higher as well.

Wheat found some buying interest overnight with South Korea's Daehan Flour Mill buying 55,700 MT of wheat to be sourced from the United States, and Japan's Ministry of Agriculture bought 137,486 MT of food quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that closed late on Friday.

平原将零星阵雨的发生start of next week near the Kansas/Oklahoma border and into parts of Texas/Oklahoma, with rains also likely later in the 6 to 10 day across the western Plains. While the outlook is drier as a whole compared to yesterday for the next two weeks in the Plains, many of the driest western areas may still see some improvement. Central Kansas is probably the most at risk to be short-changed based on the current model runs, although confidence remains low due to the continued inconsistency in the model guidance.

Corn has found some buying interest of late with modest gains in cash basis and traders expecting a lower corn number than USDA put out in March. However, the risk for bigger carryout still exists. As U of Illinois economist Darrel Good states “Planted acreage of 93.6 million acres, harvested acreage of 86 million acres, and an average yield near the USDA's calculated trend of 168 bushels would result in a crop of 14.448 billion bushels and 2016-17 marketing year ending stocks near 2.4 billion bushels."

Oil prices rose as much as 5 percent on Friday, lifted by fresh hopes over a proposed freeze in oil production and firm economic indicators from the United States and Germany that cast a positive light on growth in fuel demand. Russia's oil production could fall in April, sources said, while the country's energy minister expressed hopes that producer nations could agree to an output freeze at a meeting in Doha later this month. Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a note that U.S. shale production was in "freefall" and that "as the global oil glut starts to clear, crude oil should lead the way". Still, some warned that oil prices could fall again, dragged down by a glut that will take time to clear and soaring production outside the United States, especially in parts of the Middle East.

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a branch of Foremost Trading LLC and its DBAs (NFA ID: 0307930)

—Kevin McNew