Can Export Sales Lift Wheat?

In the overnight session the grains moved slightly higher with wheat showing the largest rebound, up 5 ¾ cents. Corn is trading unchanged this morning and soybeans is up ¾ of a cent. The U.S. dollar is moving nearly 1/3 of a percent lower and crude oil is up 12 cents per barrel.

Export sales were mostly on the low side of analyst expectations except for wheat which booked 502,800 metric tons this week. Wheat sales were up 73 percent on the week and beat analyst expectations which ranged from 200,000 to 400,000 metric tons. Old crop corn sales recorded 223,400 metric tons which was down 33 percent from the previous week missing analyst expectations which ranged from 250,000 to 450,000 metric tons. Old crop soybeans recorded positive sales this week, adding 80,800 metric tons to the books. Analyst were expecting between 0-150,000 metric tons booked this week.

New crop corn and soybean sales were on the low side of analyst expectations with corn only booking 311,400 metric tons and soybeans booking 241,800 metric tons. As of last week new crop corn and soybeans had booked just over half the sales we typically see during this time of the year. The strong dollar and sharp rally in the grains recently has slowed new crop export demand considerably.

Ethanol production fell 11,000 barrels per day this week to 973,000 BPD. Despite the weekly decline ethanol production continues to 4.6 percent ahead of last year’s pace. This week’s ethanol production was 14,000 barrels per day ahead of last year during the same week, and 101,000 barrels per day ahead of the four year average. Ethanol stocks also declined this week, falling 181,000 barrels to 19.56 million barrels.

—Cody Bills