美国农业部：美国玉米生产下降4.3％

The U.S. Department of Agriculture released its MayWorld Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)reports on May 12.

In its first projections for the 2022-23 crop year, USDA says预计美国玉米生产将下降4.3％from last year amid a slow start to planting, whilewinter wheat productionin the southern Plains states is at historic lows.

Also noted in the latest report, theRussian invasion of Ukrainemeans nearly 30% of Ukraine's farmland won’t be planted this year.

WHEAT

The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. wheat is for reduced supplies, exports, domestic use stocks and higher prices.

美国2022/23小麦供应预计下降了3％，因为起始股票的较低量远远超过了更大的收获。所有2022/23的小麦产量预计为17.29亿蒲式耳，比去年增长了8300万，因为收获面积略有下降的收益率高。

全小麦产量预计为每英亩46.6蒲式耳，比去年增长2.3蒲式耳。2022/23冬季小麦的首个基于调查的预测比去年下降了8％，因为较低的硬红色冬季和柔软的红色冬季产量远远超过了白麦产量的增加。

冬季小麦的遗弃是2002年以来最高的，得克萨斯州和俄克拉荷马州的水平最高。2022/23的春季小麦产量预计将从去年减少干旱的硬红春季和硬化量作物中重大反弹。

Total 2022/23 domestic use is projected down 1 percent on lower feed and residual use more than offsetting higher food use. Exports are projected at 775 million bushels, down from revised 2021/22 exports and would be the lowest since 1971/72. Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are 6 percent lower than last year at 619 million bushels, the lowest level in nine years. The projected 2022/23 season-average farm price (SAFP) is a record $10.75 per bushel, up $3.05 from last year’s revised SAFP.

Wheat cash and futures prices are expected to remain sharply elevated through the first part of the marketing year when the largest proportion of U.S. wheat is marketed. The global wheat outlook for 2022/23 is for lower supplies and consumption, increased trade, and lower ending stocks.

Global production is forecast at 774.8 million tons, 4.5 million lower than in 2021/22. Reduced production in Ukraine, Australia, and Morocco is only partly offset by increases in Canada, Russia, and the U.S. Production in Ukraine is forecast at 21.5 million tons in 2022/23, 11.5 million lower than 2021/22 due to the ongoing war. Canada’s production is forecast to rebound to 33.0 million tons in 2022/23, up significantly from last year’s drought-affected crop.

预计2022/23世界使用lightly lower at 787.5 million tons, as increases for food use are more than offset by declining feed and residual use. The largest feed and residual use reductions are in China, the European Union, and Australia as well as a sizeable decline in food use in India.

Projected 2022/23 global trade is a record 204.9 million tons, up 5.0 million from last year. Imports are projected to rise on increased exportable supplies from Russia and Canada more than offsetting reductions for Ukraine and Australia. Russia is projected as the leading 2022/23 wheat exporter at 39.0 million tons, followed by the European Union, Australia, Canada, and the United States.

乌克兰的出口预测是1000万2022/23tons, down sharply from last year on reduced production and significant logistical constraints for exports. India is expected to remain a significant wheat exporter in 2022/23. Projected 2022/23 world ending stocks are reduced 5 percent to 267.0 million tons and would be the lowest level in six years. The largest change is for India, where stocks are forecast to decline to 16.4 million tons, a five-year low.

粗粒

The 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, domestic use, exports, ending stocks, and higher prices.

The corn crop is projected at 14.5 billion bushels, down 4.3 percent from last year. The corn yield is projected at 177.0 bushels per acre, 4.0 bushels below the weather adjusted trend presented at USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum in February.

Thevery slow start to this year’s plantingin the major corn producing states and the likelihood that progress by mid-May will remain well behind normal reduce yield prospects. Despite beginning stocks that are up relative to a year ago, total corn supplies are forecast to decline 2.7 percent to 15.9 billion bushels.

预计2022/23年美国玉米的总使用率将下降2.5％，而国内使用和出口的下降将下降。食物，种子和工业（FSI）的使用实际上是68亿蒲式耳的不变。相对于一年前，用于乙醇的玉米没有变化。

高粱FSI没有变化，但比近年来最低量高，因为预计中国将继续从其他出口商那里采购高粱，除了美国玉米饲料，相对于一年前，剩余使用率下降了4.9％，反映了较小的农作物，这反映了较小的农作物，生产商收到的预期季节平均水平较高，谷物消费动物单元的下降。

U.S. corn exports are forecast to decline 4.0 percent in 2022/23 as lower supplies and robust domestic demand limit prospects. Even with record exports projected for Argentina and Brazil, a 550-million-bushel drop in exports for Ukraine due to the ongoing conflict is the primary catalyst for a decline in world trade. With expectations of robust global demand in the face of high prices, the U.S. share of global corn trade is up slightly relative to a year ago.

With total U.S. corn supply falling more than use, 2022/23 U.S. ending stocks are down 80 million bushels from last year. Stocks relative to use at 9.3 percent would be below a year ago and lower than the 14.4 percent average seen during 2015/16 to 2019/20. The season-average corn price received by producers is projected at $6.75 per bushel, up 85 cents from a year ago and if realized the highest since $6.89 reached during 2012/13.

2022/23的全球粗粒外观用于较低的生产和使用，以及较小的结局库存。预计世界玉米的产量将从去年的创纪录的高位下降，主要反映了乌克兰，美国，欧盟和中国的减少，这些减少被巴西，阿根廷，塞尔维亚和南非的增加所抵消。预计世界玉米的使用率将下降1.2％，外国消费量下降了0.9％。世界玉米进口量预计将下跌2.3％，中国，加拿大，欧盟，巴西和英国的进口量将同比下降。玉米进口的显着增加包括越南，伊朗和孟加拉国。

Global corn ending stocks are down 1.4 percent to 305.1 million tons, mostly reflecting expected declines for China and the U.S. that are partially offset by increases for Brazil, Serbia, and Ukraine.

For China, total coarse grain imports for 2022/23 are forecast at 37.9 million tons, down 5.0 million from a year ago and below the record 50.5 million reached during 2020/21. China’s internal market prices for energy feedstuffs remain higher than the world market, despite a surge in prices among major exporting countries. Corn imports are expected to decline 5.0 million tons to 18.0 million with a decline in imports from Ukraine. Barley imports are projected at 10.0 million tons and sorghum at 9.5 million.

OILSEEDS

The 2022/23 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, exports, and ending stocks compared with 2021/22.

大豆农作物预计为46.4亿蒲式耳，比去年的农作物上涨了5％，主要是收获的地区。大豆供应量略低，预计为48.9亿蒲式耳，比2021/22增长4％。2022/23的美国油籽总产量预计为1.366亿吨，比2021/22增长了610万吨，主要是大豆生产。菜籽和葵花籽的生产预测也更高。

The U.S. soybean crush for 2022/23 is projected at 2.26 billion bushels, up 40 million from the 2021/22 forecast. Domestic soybean meal disappearance is forecast to increase 2 percent from 2021/22 with low soybean meal prices relative to corn. U.S. soybean meal exports are forecast at 14.4 million short tons, leaving the U.S share of global trade near the prior 5-year average.

With increased supplies, U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 2.2 billion bushels, up 60 million from the revised 2021/22 projection. Despite reduced soybean supplies available for export from South America for the first half of the 2022/23 marketing year, an anticipated record harvest and sharply higher exports beginning in early 2023 is expected to leave the U.S. with a lower share of global trade in 2022/23. U.S. ending stocks for 2022/23 are projected at 310 million bushels, up 75 million
from the revised 2021/22 forecast.

2022/23美国季季大豆价格预计为每蒲式耳14.40美元，而2021/22的每蒲式耳13.25美元。预计大豆用餐价格从2021/22吨至每吨短吨$ 400，大豆油价下跌了5美分，每磅平均每磅70美分，因为油菜和产品供应在国外市场中重现。

2022/23的全球油料产量预计为6.471亿吨，比上一个营销年份增加了5030万吨，当时干旱影响了南美大豆的产量和加拿大的菜籽作物。

Global soybean production is forecast up 45.3 million tons to 394.7 million, with Brazil accounting for over half of the increase, up 24 million tons to a record 149 million. Argentina’s soybean crop is expected to reach 51 million tons and Paraguay 10 million.

部分抵消了较高的全球大豆和低芥酸菜籽的产量是乌克兰的油料生产较低。

Global protein meal consumption is expected to grow 3 percent in 2022/23, recovering from slow growth in the past two marketing years. Nearly half of the gains are in China where soybean crush is forecast to increase 6 million tons from 2021/22 to 95 million.

Exportable supplies of oilseed meals and oils are expected to recover, with higher 2022/23 crush for Canada and South America, which offset declines in sunflower products out of Ukraine. Further, palm oil exports are expected to increase for Indonesia after slower-than-normal shipments and export restrictions in the prior marketing year.

Find the full report.

—喂养& Grain Staff