2017年晚期种植

加里·施尼特基（Gary Schnitkey）

Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics
伊利诺伊大学

farmdocdaily（7）：85

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推荐引用格式：Schnitkey，G。”2017年晚期种植。“farmdocdaily（7）：85，2017年5月9日，伊利诺伊大学伊利诺伊大学农业和消费者经济学系。

Permalink:http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2017/05/late-planting-in-2017.html

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最近的潮湿，凉爽的天气引起了人们对种植延误的担忧，这可能导致种植从玉米转移到大豆。从经济学的角度来看，转向大豆的决定可能取决于已经施用了多少氮肥，鉴于已经施用的农药允许切换到大豆。

2017 Planting Progress in Perspective

While planting concerns exist, statistics released in May 8^Th国家农业统计服务局（NASS）的报告表明，迄今为止在2017年的种植进展接近五年的平均水平：

Illinois:65% of the corn was planted by May 7^Th相比63%的5年平均水平。然而,little progress was made between April 30 and May 7^Th，，，，with the percent planted increasing only 2 percentage points from 63% on April 30^Thto 65% on May 7th. As always, planting progress varies across the state, with the highest percent planted being in the West Southwest crop reporting district at 88% and the lowest in the Northwest district at 31%.

Ohio:46％的玉米是在5月7日之前种植的^Th相比之下，五年平均水平为38％。

印第安纳州：51% of the corn was planted by May 7^Th相比之下，五年的平均水平为43％。

Iowa:52％的玉米是在5月7日之前种植的^Thcompared to a 55% five-year average.

Minnesota:35％的玉米是在5月7日种植的^Thcompared to a 55% five-year average.

Given recent slow planting progress, late planting will become more of a concern if wet, cool weather continues.

Corn Planting versus Soybeans Planting

再次种植时，可能会面对种植玉米或大豆的决定。如前所述，2017年早些时候的价格和成本表明，种植大豆比种植玉米更有利可图（见farmdocdaily，，，，December 6, 2016，，，，andfarmdocdaily，，，，2017年4月4日）。到目前为止，这个生长季节，价格没有改变这些期望：预计大豆比玉米更有利可图。随着后来的种植的发生，预期的玉米回报率将减少超过预期的大豆回报，因为预期的玉米收益率会降低到预期的大豆收益率后期。因此，所有费用的比较可能表明种植大豆。

However, the decision to switch from corn to soybeans should be influenced by pesticides and nitrogen fertilizer already applied. If certain herbicides have been applied, the ability to switch to soybeans may not exist. If switching is an option, then the amount of nitrogen remaining to be applied will influence decisions. Nitrogen already applied is a sunk cost and should be excluded when making comparisons between expected corn and soybean returns.

伊利诺伊州中部，使用“通过种植日期的回报”纸说明了应用氮的影响。种植决策模型，，，，a FAST spreadsheet available for download from thefarmdocwebsite. The example is for central Illinois, with inputs shown in Appendix A. The example has a maximum expected yield of 203 bushels per acre, which decreases after April 20^Th。5月13日产量^This expected to be 196 bushels per acre. The maximum soybean yield is 61 bushels per acre. Yields decrease from this 61 bushel per acre maximum after April 27^Th。5月13日的预期收益^Thplanting is 59 bushels per acre. Total non-land costs are $507 per acre for corn and $335 per acre for soybeans. The non-land costs for corn include a $53 per acre cost for nitrogen fertilizer. The amount of nitrogen left to be applied will be varied below. Assuming that $40 remain to be applied means that roughly $13 of nitrogen already has been applied. Reported below are returns before land costs.

Figure 1 shows corn returns and soybean returns by date planted, given that $40 of nitrogen remain to be applied. Both corn and soybean returns go down after late April. In this case, soybeans are more profitable than corn throughout May.

Figure 2 shows returns given that $0 per acre of nitrogen needs to be applied. This situation could be a full application of nitrogen during the previous fall. In this case, corn is always expected to be more profitable than soybeans no matter the planting date.

图3显示了回报，鉴于每英亩的氮气仍有24美元待施用。在这种情况下，玉米和大豆之间的收益相对较差。回报的比较并不暗示玉米和大豆之间的较高选择。

Summary

已经应用的氮将影响从玉米转向大豆的经济学。与更强烈的氮植物相比，已经具有较高水平的氮将导致回报比较。上述分析是针对伊利诺伊州中部的。比较与以上不同区域的比较会有所不同。

References

Schnitkey，G。”2017年收支平衡 - 玉米和大豆具有相同的盈利能力：重新审视。“farmdocdaily(7):61, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, April 4, 2017.

Schnitkey，G。和D. Good。“2017 Crop Budgets and Current Prices Say Switch to Soybeans and Expect Low Returns。“farmdocdaily(6):228, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, December 6, 2016.