AG零售的未来将由精确驱动

来源:CoBank

随着美国谷物价格的上涨连续第二年，农场供应合作社和独立的农业零售商正在享有丰厚的财务回报。

高于平均水平的延长时期导致农民增加农艺投入和服务的支出。但是，尽管预计在未来12个月内，AG零售业的利润将保持良好，但新兴的结构性挑战将带来未来几年的竞争和压力盈利能力的提高。

Major crop input suppliers wielding greater market power, larger farm enterprises with a growing appetite for more sophisticated technologies, and competition from ag equipment dealers competing for those services are among the key challenges facing ag retailers over the long-term.

According to aCobank知识交流的新报告, the ag retailer of the future has an opportunity to earn more income from precision agronomy services and emerging sustainability management programs, in addition to traditional crop input sales.

The report suggests the current operating environment provides a timely opportunity for ag retailers to invest in new technologies and position themselves for success in a marketplace that is evolving rapidly.

“The traditional approach for farm supply cooperatives is to save above-average profits when times are good and then manage costs rigorously during the inevitable downturn, which we expect will begin in 2023,” says Kenneth Scott Zuckerberg, lead grain and farm supply economist with CoBank.

“不幸的是，这种方法使合作社在下降周期期间的收入波动和收入下降，这通常可以持续五年或更长时间。”

Instead of relying on product commissions and rebates alone, Zuckerberg sees farm supply cooperatives’ path forward is to expand their precision agronomy service offerings and capture more income from consultative service and software fees.

“Putting technology and information to work to help farmers manage their inputs and production is where farm supply co-ops excel,” he said.

尾风继续进行AG零售业，即将到期

Ag retailers have enjoyed three consecutive profitable agronomy seasons and are generally well positioned for fall 2021 given high grain prices and favorable farm economics.

基于强大的农民收入，对农作物投入的稳定需求和有利的现金流量，短期前景通常仍然是积极的。

Partially offsetting this, retailers may face shortages of certain protection chemicals sourced from Asia as well as high wholesale fertilizer costs which they may not be able to fully pass on to growers.

日益增长的全球需求佛r feed grains and vegetable oil generally positions U.S. farmers and retailers for continued success in 2022.

U.S. corn and soybean stocks remain very tight and the demand imbalance in stocks and usage should persist until at least 2023.

驱动变革的力量

Over the next several years, ag retailers are facing risks that will accelerate over time.

The number of U.S. farms continues to decline due to consolidation as family and non-family farms seek greater economies of scale to boost profitability.

As the new class of commercial farming enterprises hire their own agronomy staff and demand more data-intensive precision ag services, ag retailers could lose their edge as agronomic service providers.

最近的收购活动证实，AG设备制造商正在加快其自主和精确农业服务的产品，这些服务与AG零售商提供的传统农艺建议竞争。

Consolidation among agro-chemical and seed suppliers and the maturation of disruptive ag tech startups represent additional structural obstacles.

获得适当的建议

Beyond providing farm customers with enhanced tools to farm more profitably, the business case for ag retailers’ expansion of precision agronomy services is financially compelling.

精确的功能可以帮助合作社吸引和保留高价值的客户，而重复的服务费则提供了新的收入来源。从风险回报的角度来看，扎克伯格将与经过验证的技术服务提供商的收入共享合作伙伴关系为AG零售商的扎实机会。

“The current environment is ideal for partnership structures as a revenue-sharing opportunity between retailers and suppliers,” he said. “The opportunities associated with technologies for everything from drone imagery and remote sensing for crop scouting to precision seed recommendations and prescriptions are continually expanding.”

阅读报告，精确农艺服务将在AG零售的未来重大考虑.

About CoBank
CoBank is a $158 billion cooperative bank serving vital industries across rural America. The bank provides loans, leases, export financing and other financial services to agribusinesses and rural power, water and communications providers in all 50 states.