Cobank发布2018年的提前报告

Expect an expanding global economy, strong U.S. consumer confidence and persistent economic recovery in many rural areas, but temper that optimism with another year of on-farm belt tightening due to lingering financial stress from low commodity prices, says a wide-ranging 2018 outlook report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange Division.

科班克知识交流部副总裁丹·科瓦尔斯基（Dan Kowalski）说：“农村经济受到华盛顿，更广泛的美国经济以及世界各地的情况的唯一影响。”“在来年，美国农村将随着更广泛的经济潮流而上升，但它也将与持续的繁荣障碍抗衡。”

The report offers a look at the following 10 key factors that will shape rural communities and the market sectors that support them:

1. The global economy: Gaining momentum
世界经济的挑战将是如何正确管理手头的扩张。2018年将为政府提供一个理想的机会，以解决在长达十年恢复中被忽略的结构性障碍。

2.货币政策：利率上升
世界各地的中央银行将围绕工资和消费者价格加速的主要问题制定策略。外国中央银行在2018年初听起来更加鹰派，但欧洲和日本将在一年中的大部分时间里继续提供一种定量宽松的形式。相比之下，在更大的财政赤字和广泛的领导层过渡中，美联储将继续提高利率。

3. The U.S. economy: Consumers have that wealthy feeling
Consumer confidence and the unemployment rate are at their best levels since 2000 and inflation-adjusted wages have been growing faster than the historical average since 2014. Add in the major gains in housing prices and the stock market, and you get a wealth effect that is causing consumers to save less and spend more. Business investment will rise in 2018 to keep up with the strengthening demand.

4.农村经济：朝着正确的方向发展
Rural America has lagged urban America in recovering from the 2008 economic crisis. Rural jobs and incomes have been slower to rebound, and the long-term decline of American manufacturing has hit rural communities the hardest. But the rural population, jobs and incomes are all trending in the right direction. And current efforts to improve rural access to broadband will offer the greatest opportunity to make a significant dent in the rural/urban economic divide.

5. Federal policy: An active election year
税制改革带来了改变个人和corporate tax rates. It has also ushered in the 199A deduction which benefits agriculture co-ops and their members. The deduction, however, has led to controversy over its unintended impact on private agriculture businesses, and is currently being reviewed by the Senate. Congress will also attempt to pass an infrastructure package with a 25 percent rural set aside, and the Farm Bill before the mid-term election.

6.农村基础设施：勇敢的新世界
The power and energy industry faces an environment of uncertainty due to tax reform, possible import tariffs on wind and solar equipment, and oversupply in power markets. These factors have stalled investment decisions across the electric utility industry, said Taylor Gunn, CoBank Knowledge Exchange Division lead industry analyst. “Ultimately, the rapidly expanding renewables sector will catch its breath in the first half of 2018, and recommence on its growth trajectory.”

同时，销售和成本上涨较弱，导致跨水公用事业的财务压力。大约三分之一的水电工具努力支付提供服务的全部成本。收入稳定将在扭转表明美国水产业健康状况下降的趋势方面发挥巨大作用。

在通讯中，竞争正在加热谁控制了谁控制了分布美国人通过宽带消费的数据的基础设施。即使速度提高，对市场份额的竞争也可以降低利率。随着扩展宽带访问的任务，农村社区可以预计2018年对宽带和塔楼的进一步投资。

7. Agricultural economy: Another year of belt tightening
The surplus of agricultural commodities will continue to depress prices and shrink farmer working capital. Farm debt loads will continue to climb as prices fall short of persistently high production costs. Market conditions have also resulted in a sharp, unsustainable divergence between farm income and farm asset values. The timing and extent of the market’s correction will be determined by much more than commodity prices and cash flow. The prevailing economic environment, interest rate levels, investor appetite, trade, changes to the tax code, the 2018 Farm Bill, and the changing regulatory environment will all play a role.

8.农业贸易：任务关键
北美自由贸易协定将在2018年上半年成为农业的主要重点。涉及的所有三个国家将被激励在7月的墨西哥总统大选之前达成协议。但是，越来越多的贸易交易正在陷入困境，这也可能极大地影响美国农业出口商。重新启动的TPP（CPTPP）正在所有原始会员竞选之间进行谈判，除非美国和美国与韩国的贸易协定也正在重新评估。随着这些谈判的展开，美国农业危在旦夕，言论在变得更好之前可能会变得更糟。

9.谷物，农场供应和生物燃料：完整的垃圾箱，瘦边缘
The grain, farm supply and biofuels sectors face a turbulent year ahead, as the industry further adjusts to a protracted cyclical downturn. Abundant supplies, low market volatility and rising interest rates will constrain farm finances and accelerate the forces of consolidation across the supply chain. This environment will reward scale, and therefore incentivize well positioned producers to keep growing. Retailers and co-ops will be contending with market disruptors that have shaken up other industries and are now gaining a foothold in the farm supply and grain marketing sectors.

10.乳制品和动物蛋白：变化时代的贸易依赖性
伤害了的同样丰富的粮食供应crop farmers have boosted profitability and spurred expansion in the U.S. dairy, livestock and poultry sectors. And more good news is expected in 2018. But as with any expansion, dairy and protein producers face the risk of overplaying their hand and boosting output too much, too fast. Price pressure will be an issue as the expansion continues. And trade uncertainties will loom large as the animal industry continues to grow.

该报告“未来的一年：将在2018年塑造美国农村经济的力量”CoBank.com。