Beef to Continue Expansion through 2019

As the U.S. beef cattle herd expands over the next two years, beef production is projected to keep pace and increase another three to five percent in 2018 and 2019, according to a new report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange Division. Strong profitability and years of excellent pasture conditions provided the strong footing that has spurred the expansion.

“The beef herd expansion we’ve seen from 2014 to 2017 has been the most aggressive three-year start to any expansion on record,” said Trevor Amen, animal protein economist at CoBank. “Recent slaughter numbers and the cattle on feed mix indicate the expansion rate is slowing, but barring any significant export market disruptions or weather events, expansion will continue through the end of the decade.

USDA estimates the 2017 calf crop will top 36 million head, an increase of 2.9 percent over 2016 and an 8.3 percent increase compared to the cyclical low calf crop in 2014.

“牛犊生产者的盈利能力在2014年和2015年的历史级别，”阿门说。“历史上，牛犊水平的平均盈利能力必须倾向于盈亏平衡，以触发从畜群扩张到收缩的过渡。”

Demand Will Remain a Critical Factor
Beef demand has exceeded expectations so far in 2017. A price rally and favorable margins for feeders and packers have bolstered overall industry profitability. Strong beef exports are critical to keep supplies in check and support prices. Exports are currently on pace to increase seven to nine percent in 2017 and five to seven percent in 2018.

“Export demand has been strong,” said Amen. “Momentum has been building since July 2016 and forecasts continue to adjust upward for the remainder of this year. Combined with decreased imports, we’re experiencing a more favorable net trade balance and keeping domestic per capita supplies in check while supporting prices levels.”

Amen suggests the industry will be squarely focused on maintaining export growth and strong domestic consumption in the face of growing supplies. Increasing dependence on export markets offers significant growth opportunities for the industry, but also increases the uncertainty and risk of domestic oversupply.

Packing Capacity Not a Concern
虽然未来两年市场准备的牛的数量将继续增加，但目前在美国包装厂的可用屠宰能力就足以处理增加。自2016年中旬以来，周六屠宰时间一直在稳步增长。但是，包装机不太可能需要重新开门的植物或建造额外设施。

“Plants will add additional slaughter hours to manage the extra supply through 2019,” said Amen. “The biggest potential concerns as the industry drifts closer to maximum packing capacity are labor availability and temporary plant closures for unforeseen maintenance issues.”

处理器有望增加对自动化和机器人的投资，以降低熟练劳动力短缺的风险。持续的植物现代化提高效率和生产力将同时配备该行业，以满足最先进的食品安全协议，这是将美国竞争激发在全球牛肉市场中的必要条件。

报告的简要概要，“美国在COBANK YouTube频道上提供足以扩大牛群的包装能力。完整报告可根据要求提供媒体。