Markets Supported by “Opening Up America Again” Announcement

Export Sales Announcement

• 私人出口商向美国国务院报告of Agriculture export sales of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2019/2020 marketing year.

White House Sets Guidelines for Reopening the Economy

• The administration issued guidelines that could allow states and employers to abandon most social distancing practices within a month.
• The plan leaves most decisions to states which should arrange to “independently” secure protective gear and medical equipment for hospitals.
• The President said that 29 of the 50 states qualified to begin the reopening process, naming Montana, North Dakota and Wyoming.
• Businesses are advised to come up with their own protocols for temperature checks, protective gear, sanitation and testing.
• In the third and final phase, employers can “resume unrestricted staffing” of workplaces, while restaurants, theaters, stadiums and other gathering places can operate with “limited physical distancing protocols.”

FBN’s Take On What It Means:In the best case, a state could abandon all but minimal social distancing practices within a month under the plan. Widespread testing is likely the key to reopening. It remains to be seen whether the country has enough testing capacity for people with symptoms and those who have been in contact with confirmed cases, and can conduct “surveillance” testing needed to stop further outbreaks. Markets are breathing a sigh of relief and the announced reopening of the economy will likely allow them to stabilize in the near term.

Export Sales Report Mixed, Corn Solid While Soybeans Lag

• Corn sales for the week ended 4/09/20 were 35.4 million bushels, above the roughly 16.2 million bushels/week needed to average in order to reach the USDA's 1.725 billion bushel export projection.
• Soybean sales of 9.0 million bushels were a new marketing year low and need to average roughly 19.6 million bushels/week in order to reach the USDA's export estimate of 1.775 billion bushels.
• Old crop U.S. wheat sales last week were 6.6 million bushels; it does appear the USDA's 985 million bushel export projection is likely to be met.
• Meal sales of 159,000 tonnes were above average sales pace at 94,000 tonnes needed to reach the USDA's export projection.
• Soybean oil sales of 21,200 tonnes were above the needed 4,000 tonnes per week.

FBN’s Take On What It Means:旧作物玉米销售一般slow dramatically during the final three months of the marketing year (June-August) so sales need to continue running at solid levels for now to help ensure reaching USDA's target. In soybeans, Chinese activity reflected new sales of just 6,000 tonnes. In order to reach USDA’s export forecast, more business from China is needed. Right now, China’s interest is on Brazilian beans. FBN is not as optimistic about US soybean exports as USDA currently is.

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)

—Kevin McNew