USDA Releases 10-Year Supply and Demand Projections

USDA Beijing Post Releases Attaché Report on Chinese Soybean Imports

• The USDA Beijing Post released an attaché report Friday on China’s oilseed production and imports.

• The Post sees 2021/22 soybean production at 19 million tonnes, in line with official USDA numbers and down from 2020/21’s 19.6 million tonnes.

• The year-over-year reduction reflects a loss of planting area to corn.

• Imports for 20/21 are 99.8 million tonnes (vs official 99 million) and are projected to rise to 101 million for 21/22; part of the increase stems from a decrease of 500,000 tonnes in rapeseed imports.

• The US provided 37.2% of the 20/21 imports, up from 17.7% the year before; Brazil’s share fell from 70% in 19/20 to under 60% in 20/21.

• The Post revised USDA’s official 20/21 crush number to 95 million tonnes from 93 million; 21/22 crush is seen at 98 million.

FBN’sTake On What It Means:The USDA Post in Beijing continues to see soybean imports reaching new records, from 99.8 million tonnes last year to 101 million this year. The main drivers will be increasing demand for soybean meal and oil and lower imports of rapeseed. The US regained its share of the imports that it lost between 17/18 and 19/20, but it may fall off again on a strong planting campaign this year in Brazil. The USDA sees US exports at 57 million tonnes, though this may be revised down in tomorrow’s report.

USDA Releases Preliminary 10-Year Supply and Demand Projections

• On Friday, the USDA released some early figures of its annual 10-year supply and demand projections.

• It sees corn acres falling in the 2022/23 marketing year to 92.0 million acres from 93.3 million in 2021/22.

• Soybeans, however, are seen rising slightly to 87.5 million acres from 87.2 million this year.

• All-wheat acres are seen jumping significantly to 49.0 million acres from 46.7 million this year.

• The figures are based on analytical models and do not incorporate famer surveys.

• The USDA plans to release the full report in February.

FBN’sTake OnWhat It Means:The USDA sees a trend away from corn acres and towards soybeans and wheat. The trends make sense, as soaring natural gas prices and a shortage of fertilizers could help limit the more-demanding grain. Surging wheat and vegetable oil prices could also move acres away from corn.

FBN Market Advisoryservices are offered by FBN BR LLC, dba FBN Brokerage, FBN BR and FBN Market Advisory (NFA ID: 0508695)

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

This is not an offer or solicitation in any jurisdiction where we are not authorized to do business or where such offer or solicitation would be contrary to the local laws and regulations of that jurisdiction, including, but not limited to, persons residing in Australia and Canada.

—Kevin McNew