Are todays export sales enough to fuel higher prices

In the overnight session corn is up 1 ¾ cents, soybeans is up 5 ¼ cents and wheat is trading 5 cents higher.

Export sales were mixed this morning with soybeans booking 489,700 metric tons this week which was on the high side of analyst expectations. Soybean sales fell 35 percent week over week, but have booked 94 percent of total export sales forecast by the USDA in the January 12th crop report. Wheat sales came in a bit lighter than expected this morning booking only 397,600 metric tons compared to expectations of between 300-500 thousand metric tons. Wheat sales declined 27 percent week over week and continues to struggle gaining a competitive edge on the global market. Corn sales were reported at 844,900 metric tons this week, which was on the low side of analyst expectations ranging between 800-1,000 thousand metric tons. Although corn sales declined 12 percent from last week, sales are still ahead of the seasonally adjusted pace to meet USDA expectations by 2.6 million metric tons. Corn has booked 72 percent of anticipated export sales.

Yesterday ethanol production showed a decline in weekly production by 30,000 barrels per day bringing the weekly average to 948,000 barrels per day. Ethanol stocks climbed again this week by 355,000 barrels to 20.99 million barrels. In the face of rising ethanol stocks ethanol production could continue to decline in the coming weeks. Despite the decline in stocks this week ethanol production is still up 5.6 percent over last year at this time.

Egypt may utilize a special $100 million dollar credit line from the United States to purchase U.S. origin wheat. This morning Egypt’s GASC stated that they may announce some tenders for U.S. Wheat only soon.

Rains continue to expand into the northeastern growing regions of Brazil and will likely continue into the beginning part of next week. The rains are expected to ease the dry concerns but not eliminate them. Scattered showers may also provide some relief to the north in the 11-15 day forecast.

—Cody Bills