Are Export Sales Strong Enough To Lift the Grains?

In the overnight session corn is trading ¾ of a cent lower, soybeans are trading 2 ½ cents higher and wheat is trading lower ¾ of a cent lower going into the morning pause.

玉米出口销售击败了分析师的期望，每周增加19％，预订1,003,100公吨。本周的销售额远高于市场预期的600,000-800,000公吨。大豆还度过了一周的美好一周，预订了745,400吨，比上周增长了52％，几乎是市场预期的250,000-450,000公吨的两倍。即使在2月份WASDE报告中考虑了2000万蒲式耳的增长之后，大豆销售仍处于速度之前。上周，小麦的销售额仅增长3％，每周总计409,300公吨，而预期为300,000-500,000吨。

Expectations Actual

Corn 600,000-850,000 1,003,100

Soybeans 250,000-450,000 745,400

小麦300,000-500,000 409,300

Weekly ethanol production increased 13,000 barrels per day to 961,000 BPD even as weekly ethanol stocks rise again. This week stocks grew 149,000 barrels to 21.14 million barrels. Ethanol production continues to run 5.6 percent ahead of last year’s production pace. In the February WASDE report the USDA increased their corn used for ethanol forecast by 75 million bushels, lifting their ethanol production forecast from .8 percent increase over last year to 2.3 percent.

The Rosario Grain Exchange lifted its forecast for corn and soybean production forecast for Argentina significantly in their latest report. Corn production was raised to 23.5 million metric tons compared to their last forecast of 22.4 MMT. Soybean production was increased to 58 million metric tons from 54.5 MMT. Both estimates were higher than the February WASDE report which estimated Argentina corn production at 23 MMT and soybean production at 56 MMT.

The Brazilian government’s crop supply agency Conab cut its corn and soybean production estimates for Brazil in a recently released report. Corn production was lowered to 78.4 MMT from 79.1 MMT in January. Soybean production was lowered to 94.6 MMT from 95.9 MMT.

—Cody Bills