NOPA September Soybean Crush Estimate Falls

NOPA September Soybean Crush Estimate

• A Reuters poll of analysts sees NOPA soybean crushings falling to 155.072 million bushels for September.

• If realized, it would be a three-month low, down from 158.843 million bushels in August and down from 161.491 MB last year.

• Estimates ranged from 148.0 to 162.8 MB.

• Soyoil supplies are projected at 1.663 billion pounds, which would be down from 1.668 billion the previous month.

• September is typically one of the least active months for soy processors, as crushers schedule maintenance work as they await newly harvested bushels.

• The crush report is scheduled to be released at 11am CST today.

FBN’sTake On What It Means:Before last month when August’s crush beat all estimates, the crush figure had failed to meet the consensus estimate for six straight months. Soybean supplies are not as tight as previously believed, and margins and demand remain good. In this week’s WASDE, the USDA upped its 2021/22 crush estimate by 10 million bushels.

USDA Attaché Report Shows Reduced Argentina Soybean Acres

• The USDA post in Buenos Aires released an attaché report yesterday showing planted area for soybeans will be 1.2 million acres lower than official USDA numbers.

• The acreage reduction will lower projected production to 49.7 million tonnes, 2.3 MMT lower than the official USDA estimate.

• The post projects that much of the acreage will be switched to corn instead; export taxes are higher on soybeans, leading to better expected margins for corn.

• Regardless, soybean production is still projected to be higher than last year’s 46.2 MMT.

FBN’sTake OnWhat It Means:This week’s WASDE lowered Argentina’s 2021/22 soybean production one million tonnes, 52 to 51 MMT. However, the attaché report lowers this further, expecting better margins for corn to encourage the replacement of bean acres. The report also estimated the 2020/21 production at 44.5 MMT, 1.7 MMT lower than USDA’s official number. Weather will be a key determinant of final numbers with La Nina expected.

FBN Market Advisoryservices are offered by FBN BR LLC, dba FBN Brokerage, FBN BR and FBN Market Advisory (NFA ID: 0508695)

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

This is not an offer or solicitation in any jurisdiction where we are not authorized to do business or where such offer or solicitation would be contrary to the local laws and regulations of that jurisdiction, including, but not limited to, persons residing in Australia and Canada.

—Kevin McNew