美国农业部周四届满

Trade Expectations for Sept 30 Reports

• USDA将发布9月1日的谷物股票估计，包裹玉米和豆类，并通过其9月30日的报告更新小谷物的产量。

• The estimates discussed are from Reuters' poll of analysts.

• Corn ending stocks are seen at 1,155 million bushels; if confirmed, that would be down notably from 2019/20’s stocks at 1,919 million. The trade looks for a minor revision of 10 million bushels from the 2020 corn crop.

• 豆类结尾处的储备有1.74亿蒲式耳；像玉米一样，这将比2019/20的决赛总数大幅下降，为5.25亿。预计2020年的豆类作物不会进行重大生产修订。

• On the wheat side, Sept 1 stocks are estimated at 1,852 million bushels; that would be down from 2,158 million last year and underscores the tightening situation we are facing for wheat balance sheets.

• For production, the trade looks for a trim to all wheat from USDA’s August total at 1,697 million bushels to 1,680 million.

• Most of the cut is expected for non-durum spring wheat production, which is seen at 327 million bushels. But, the range of expectations is extremely wide from a low end of 273 million to a high of 357 million.

fbn的采取它的含义：通常，报告具有支持的支持，因为它们应该强调库存的紧缩情况，而一年前却在玉米，豆类和小麦上进行。另外，在生产方面，该行业寻找春季小麦的切割，这可能来自较小的收获区域和/或较小的产量。玉米，豆类或小麦的惊喜比贸易倾向于的总数要大得多。

Louis Dreyfus and Others Shutter Soy Crush Plants in China

• At least 20 soybean crushing plants in China have shuttered to comply with mandates on power consumption.

• The plants include one facility owned by Louis Dreyfus; another owned by Bunge responded to the power mandates but did not see significant production changes.

• Soymeal prices are sharply up in China in response to the closings.

• However, there’s little risk of excess soybean stocks, as soybean imports have been relatively weak recently amid already heightened global prices.

fbn的Take OnWhat It Means:The soy crush plants are the latest industry to feel the pressure from stepped up enforcement of emissions limits in China. Other industries have included fertilizer production and aluminum smelting. While some relief may come amid worries over short-term supplies of soymeal ahead of holidays at the beginning of October, the market does not anticipate a major reversal on the emissions mandates.

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—凯文·麦克纽（Kevin McNew）