ThePurdue University-CME Group Ag Economy BarometerIndexrose again in January, to a reading of 130, 4 points above its2022 year-end index value.
The January survey results also pushed the index 34% above its 2022 low point which occurredlast June.
The barometer’s modest rise in January was primarily attributed to better expectations for the future as theFuture Expectations Indexrose 5 points to 127 while theIndex of Current Conditions,with a value of 136, changed little compared to December.
Highlights
- TheFinancial Performance Indexdropped to 93 this month, down from 109 in December, but that primarily reflects producers’ being asked to look ahead to 2023 and compare it to 2022 rather than comparing 2022 to 2021, which is what the question in December did.
- The January reading of theFarm Capital Investment Indexclimbed 2 points to 42. January marked the second month in a row the index rose, the first time that’s occurred since the fall of 2020. January’s modest rise pushed the index up 35% compared to its November 2022 low, although the index remained 7% lower than a year earlier.
- TheShort-Term Farmland Value Indexdeclined again in January, falling to 120, 4 points below its year-end reading. Compared to a year earlier, this month’s short-term index was down 22 points, a decline of 15%.
- TheLong-Term Farmland Values Indexrose slightly to 142 from 140 in December. Over the last year, the long-term index has declined just 2% as producers continue to retain a more optimistic long-term than short-term view of farmland values.
- This month’s survey included questions about租赁农田碳封存. Despite producers’ ongoing interest in carbon contracts, few have signed a contract. Just 1% of survey respondents in January reported that they had signed a carbon contract.
ThePurdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometersentiment index is calculated each month from 400 U.S. agricultural producers’ responses to a telephone survey. This month’s survey was conducted from January 16-20, 2023.
